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Daily Market Insight: 4 March 2024

4 มี.ค. 2567
  •  USDTHB: moving in the range 35.735-35.80 this morning supportive level at 35.60 resistance level at 35.90

·         SET Index: 1,367.4 (-0.24%), 1 Mar 2024

·         S&P 500 Index: 5,137.1 (+0.80%), 1 Mar 2024

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.57 (+0.22 bps), 1 Mar 2024

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 4.19 (-6.00 bps), 1 Mar 2024

 

  • US manufacturing contracts further, rays of light on the horizon
  • Euro zone Feb factory activity contracted for 20th month
  • China new home prices rise at slower pace in February
  • Dollar dips on weak data, yen hurt by cautious BOJ

 

US manufacturing contracts further, rays of light on the horizon US manufacturing slumped further in February, with a measure of factory employment falling to a seven-month low amid layoffs, but there were signs activity was on the cusp of rebounding. The ISM said its manufacturing PMI fell to 47.8 last month from 49.1 in January. It was the 16th straight month the PMI remained below 50, which indicates contraction in manufacturing. That is the longest such stretch since the period from August 2000 to January 2002. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index edging up to 49.5. The share of PMI components with readings at or below 45, which is viewed as a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness, was 1% last month compared to 27% and 48% in January and December, respectively.

 

Euro zone Feb factory activity contracted for 20th month Euro zone manufacturing activity continued to contract last month amid weak demand although firms were optimistic about the year ahead. HCOB's final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, dipped to 46.5 in February from January's 46.6, beating a preliminary estimate of 46.1 but below the 50-mark separating growth in activity from contraction for a 20th month. An index measuring output, which feeds into a composite PMI due on Tuesday and seen as a good gauge of economic health, held steady at January's 46.6, above a flash estimate of 46.2.

 

China new home prices rise at slower pace in February New home prices in China rose at a slightly slower pace in February versus a month earlier, a private survey showed on Friday, reflecting continued struggle in a property sector where government support measures are yet to reinvigorate sales. The average new home price across 100 cities rose 0.14%, compared with an on-month gain of 0.15% in January, showed data from real estate researcher China Index Academy. The number of cities that reported home price growth was nine less than in the previous month. The southern mega-city of Shenzhen, which logged price rises in January after benefiting from easing market policies, experienced the steepest price drop in February at 0.28%. Total sales by value among 100 real estate companies plunged 51.6% year-on-year in the first two months of the year, showed a separate China Index Academy survey.

 

Dollar dips on weak data, yen hurt by cautious BOJ The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.57, +0.22 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.56, +1.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.19, -6.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.91 Moving in a range of 35.735-35.80 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.60-35.90 today. The dollar fell against the euro on Friday on weaker than expected US economic data but gained against the Japanese yen after Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor Kazuo Ueda said it was too soon to declare victory on inflation. US manufacturing slumped further in February, with a measure of factory employment dropping to a seven-month low amid declining new orders. Construction spending, which had been expected to increase, also fell in January. Economists at Goldman Sachs cut their gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for the first quarter by 0.2 percentage points to 2.2% after the data. The dollar has been largely rangebound with traders focusing closely on economic data for any new clues on when the US Federal Reserve is likely to begin cutting interest rates.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC