- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.615-32.655 this morning supportive level at 32.55 resistance level at 32.80
- SET Index: 1,110.4 (-0.5%), 9 July 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,280.5 (+0.3%), 10 July 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.543 (-0.7 bps), 9 July 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.35 (+1.0 bps), 10 July 2025
- Ongoing tariff announcements
- FOMC Minutes: Most support Fed rate cut this year
- China PPI slides further, CPI inches up in June
- Bok kept while BNM cut in July meeting
- The dollar rises amid tariff developments
Ongoing tariff announcements
President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper, effective August 1. He also revealed new tariff rates on seven countries: 20% for the Philippines, 25% for Brunei and Moldova, and 30% for Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka. Additionally, Trump later imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil and launched a Section 301 investigation, citing Brazil’s ongoing actions against US digital trade. Meanwhile, the US and EU are in talks over car import quotas and export credit arrangements. On Friday, President Trump announced a 35% tariff on select Canadian goods starting August 1, undermining Prime Minister Carney’s efforts to avoid steep trade penalties. He also signaled that blanket tariffs on most US trading partners could rise to 15–20%, up from the current 10%.
FOMC Minutes: Most support Fed rate cut this year
The FOMC Minutes indicated that most members viewed a reduction in the federal funds rate later this year as appropriate, with a few open to the possibility of a cut as early as July if incoming data aligns with their expectations. However, some believed the most suitable course might involve no rate cuts in 2025, pointing to persistent inflation, high inflation expectations among businesses and consumers, and the continued strength of the economy. Additionally, several members noted that the current federal funds rate might be close to its neutral level, and all agreed it was appropriate to keep the rate within the existing target range.
China PPI slides further, CPI inches up in June
China’s producer prices fell 3.6% year-on-year—the steepest drop since July 2023—marking 33 straight months of factory deflation and surpassing forecasts. Meanwhile, consumer prices edged up 0.1% in June, ending a four-month decline, though the gain was likely due to temporary government subsidies rather than a real recovery in demand.
Bok kept while BNM cut in July meeting
The BoK unanimously decided to keep the base rate at 2.50%, signaling its ongoing willingness to cut rates to mitigate economic risks as necessary. In contrast, Malaysia’s central bank unexpectedly reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, aiming to support the economy amid mounting global trade uncertainties.
The dollar rises amid tariff developments
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.543, -0.70 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.540, -0.91 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.35, +1.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.65, moving in a range of 32.615 – 32.655 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.55 – 32.80 today. The dollar strengthened overall despite mixed performance against major peers following this week’s tariff developments, with economic data showing a drop in initial jobless claims but a rise in continued claims; Fed speakers had little market impact as attention shifts to next week’s key US releases including CPI, PPI, retail sales, and the start of earnings season. The euro slipped below 1.1700 amid light news flow and lingering trade uncertainty, while the British pound fell under 1.3600 but remained above intraday lows ahead of UK GDP and industrial data. The Japanese yen was mostly unchanged after recovering from early weakness in the absence of fresh domestic catalysts.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
