Monthly economic update: November 2025
Executive summary
Global Economy
- In November 2025, the global economic data continue to show sign of an economic slowdown, reflected by overall Q3 GDP. In terms of price pressures, Asian inflation edged up slightly but remained under control, while developed market inflation stayed relatively higher than in Asia.
- US economic data resume following the end of the longest government shutdown on record. However, some key releases may miss the Fed’s final policy meeting of the year. Meanwhile, recent private-sector surveys continue to signal an economic slowdown. For China, economic activity cooled more than expected in October. Nonetheless, the data is unlikely to threaten the annual target GDP or prompt faster stimulus.
- On the policy front, uncertainty around Fed easing is rising amid global easing cycles near completion.
Domestic Economy
- In September 2025, overall economic activity picked up, driven by rising merchandise exports despite the clarity of US reciprocal tariff enforcement aligning with rebound manufacturing production after ease of temporarily halt production. Nonetheless, domestic demand had moderated, with both private consumption and investment softened.
- The headline inflation (CPI) declined further from the previous month in October 2025. The main factors were primarily attributed to the falling prices of several food items due to persistently low in raw food prices transmission. Moreover, the energy prices also declined following the global energy prices including electricity price regarding to government subsidy measures. The core inflation also soften, marked a 15-month low.
- In Q3/25, Thai economic growth dropped dramatically and had contracted for the first-time in years, which below market expectation, resulting from a deceleration of exports of goods and services, as well as gross fixed capital formation particularly in government investment. For the first nine months, Thai economy expanded by 2.4%. In addition, NESDC maintained its GDP growth forecast for 2025 but it is expected to decelerate in 2026.
Financial Market
- US Treasury yields rose across the curve, supported by hawkish Fed comments and unavailable labor data, reducing the likelihood of a December rate cut. In contrast, Thai government bond yields were mixed across the curve compared with the previous period. Looking ahead, the Thai bond yield curve is expected to decline toward year-end, supported by seasonal patterns and a rising likelihood of an MPC rate cut at the final meeting of the year.
- The dollar strengthened, supported by hawkish Fed comments that lowered expectations of a December rate cut. A government shutdown delayed key economic data, limiting policy-moving information. The Thai baht remained range-bound over the past month, despite typically strong seasonal trends.
