Daily Market Insight

• US data paints mixed picture as PMIs strengthen while regional surveys soften • US senate votes to halt Iran war • Eurozone PMI contraction eases in June • BOJ signals further rate hikes as members push toward neutral policy rate • MSCI delays Indonesia market status review to November • Dollar firms amid broad risk-off moves

• Iran-US talks advance, easing energy market concerns • Japan PMI strengthens as manufacturing drives growth, but cost pressures rise • Starmer quits and sets out plan for new UK PM by September • China keeps loan prime rate unchanged for 13th straight month in June • Dollar gains across G10 as quiet US calendar shifts focus to PCE

• US–Iran talks remain uncertain, renewing ceasefire and market risks • US weighs $80bn supplemental spending plan • UK retail sales rose 1.2% in May, beating forecasts • Starmer on the brink with resignation plan expected • Dollar remains firm, supported by Fed hawkishness and residual geopolitical risks

• US-Iran peace deal boosts sentiment • Japan inflation holds steady as subsidies restrain energy • Central bank decisions broadly aligned with market expectations • S&P keeps Thai sovereign credit rating intact at BBB+ • Dollar extends gains after hawkish Fed

• Fed holds rates steady, removes forward guidance • Warsh reinforces hawkish Fed stance, signals policy framework review • US retail sales beat expectations, signaling resilient US consumer demand • UK inflation unexpectedly holds steady at 2.8% in May • Dollar rallies as Fed delivers hawkish shift, markets price year-end hike

• Oil falls on easing middle east risks and expectations of higher supply • BoJ hikes rates and pauses bond tapering, maintains gradual tightening path • China domestic demand weakens as consumption and investment slump • Thailand adopts 15% global minimum tax • Dollar weakens as oil falls; markets await Fed

• Markets turn risk-on as US-Iran deal eases geopolitical concerns • US data disappoints, but market reaction remains muted • Eurozone industrial production edges higher in April • Dollar weakens as US-Iran deal boosts risk sentiment; focus shifts to FOMC and BoJ

• The US-Iran peace deal boosted market sentiment • US orders Anthropic to disable AI models for all foreign nationals • UoM survey signals improving confidence, cooling price pressures • UK economy contracts in April amid energy price pressures • Dollar weakens as deal progress continues, with focus shifting to the Fed meeting

• Trump signals progress on Iran deal • Mixed PPI keeps Fed outlook largely unchanged as underlying inflation remains sticky • ECB hikes for first time since 2023 as inflation heats up • Dollar slides as Trump signals progress in Iran talks, boosting risk appetite

• Geopolitical risks surge as US and Iran exchange strikes • US consumer prices rise by 4.2% annually in May • China consumer inflation stalls while factory prices surge • Dollar trades mixed as markets weigh inflation and geopolitical risks