Daily Market Insight

• US July CPI meets expectations, boosting September Fed hold bets • Oil holds steady as US-Iran diplomacy remains in focus • Japan producer prices stay elevated, keeping BoJ hike bets alive • PBoC signals continued monetary support for growth • Dollar recovers despite lower Fed hike bets

• Oil rises on US-Iran tensions and Hormuz uncertainty • Fed’s Hammack maintains hawkish stance, sees need for more hikes • Eurozone investor sentiment turns positive, hits six-month high • BoJ sees rising inflation risks from weak yen, oil and AI demand • Prabowo nominates Destry Damayanti as BI Governor • Dollar edges higher as markets await US CPI

• US labour market softens with NFP falling below expectations • US-Iran tensions persist as Hormuz deal remains uncertain • US senate passes short-term funding bill, easing shutdown risk • China trade balance grows more than expected in July on exports boost • Dollar softens as weak NFP tempers Fed hike expectations

• Middle east tensions escalate on Houthi attacks and Hormuz proposal • US labour data remains resilient but has little market impact • Warsh stays data-dependent, keeps hike option alive • Eurozone retail sales disappoint, highlighting fragile consumer demand • Japan June household spending falls unexpectedly • Dollar extends gains as yields rise and Fed hike bets persist

• US ADP nonfarm payroll disappointed in July • US services activity remained resilient • China services growth slows sharply as domestic demand loses momentum • RBI holds rates steady as inflation risks keep policymakers cautious • Japan weighs temporary food tax cut as BoJ maintains tightening bias • Thailand inflation cools further, supporting a prolonged rate pause • Thai Baht gains momentum as oil prices retreat and US dollar soften

• De-escalation hopes rise as strait of Hormuz reopening gains momentum • US job openings weaken, pointing to easing labour demand • US targets Chinese data center components • Japan’s wage momentum keeps BOJ normalisation on track • Dollar weakens as oil slumps and hawkish Fed bets fade

• De-escalation hopes rise after Trump halts Iran strikes • US ISM manufacturing expands at fastest pace since 2022 • Eurozone manufacturing recovery remains uneven in July • Japan confirms coordinated FX intervention with US • China factory growth slows, while ASEAN manufacturing rebounds • Dollar gains against major peers, lags yen

• Middle east shows tentative de-escalation • Fed dissenters defend rate hike as inflation risks persist • Eurozone inflation strengthens as US-Iran strikes boost oil • BOJ keeps rates steady, signals further rate hikes • China PMIs signal broad economic slowdown • Dollar remains under pressure amid yen rally and intervention speculation

• US GDP misses, but underlying demand remains resilient • Geopolitical risks remain elevated despite diplomatic progress • Eurozone GDP beats expectations, supporting ECB tightening outlook • BoE holds rates as dovish tone offsets global inflation risks • Tokyo inflation remains firm ahead of BoJ decision • Dollar slides on softer US data and sharp yen rally

• Fed holds rates, but hawkish dissents keep tightening risk alive • Middle east tensions escalate, lifting oil prices • South Korea pledges market stabilisation following Kospi selloff • Thailand’s industrial production remains under pressure • Dollar slides as FOMC falls short of hawkish expectations