Daily Market Insight

• Oil retreats from six-month highs, but geopolitical supply risks keep inflation concerns elevated • US activity returns above trend, supporting a firm dollar and limiting the case for near-term easing • German confidence beats expectations, offering near-term support to the euro • Thailand’s import surge overshadows robust export growth, driving a sharp trade deficit

• Trump prepares for potential Iran escalation after US and Israeli elections • Trump targets mortgage insurance and refinancing costs to ease housing burden • US consumer confidence weakens even as business activity remains strong • French unrest introduces a new fiscal and confidence shock for Europe • Euro area growth loses momentum as France contracts

• UK producer price pressures intensified in September • UK inflation surprises to the upside, reinforcing expectations that the BoE may resume tightening in November • Japan’s export growth stays robust, supported by chips and cars • China defended its rare-earth export controls on Japan • Indonesia's central bank keeps key rate unchanged, delivering policy mixed • Dollar held near 3-week low ahead of next week’s Fed meeting

• U.S. private-sector hiring cooled in early October • German producer prices hit highest in years, fueling inflation worries • French bond yields near 24-year high as new protests loom • China leaves loan rates unchanged as PBOC weighs reforms • BI under pressure to tighten further as MSCI downgrade risks • Dollar slipped as lower oil prices eased inflation and rate-hike concerns

• US housing sends a sharper high-rate warning • French fiscal and political risks pressure the euro and sovereign bonds • BoJ sees underlying inflation near target, leaving room to tighten • China’s growth accelerates as exports and industrial production remain resilient • China’s consumption and property sectors remain key drags on domestic demand

• US import prices accelerate while industrial output beats • US Producer inflation accelerates as energy costs spread across the economy • US Retail sales beat expectations, but underlying spending softens • Warsh stresses price stability without committing to another hike • IMF sees further ECB tightening as energy inflation persists

• U.S. CPI accelerated in September as gasoline prices surged • ECB President signals no intervention in France’s fiscal crisis • China’s PPI rose at fastest pace over four years, while CPI remained subdued • China's trade surplus widened more than expected in September as exports surged • Thailand’s Cabinet approved THB 50 billion housing loan scheme to boost homeownership • Dollar swung on renewed inflation concerns

• U.S. ADP Employment change 4-week average slowed • Global growth stays resilient, but inflation and energy pressures cloud the outlook • Japan’s producer price inflation eased more than expected in September • OPEC continues to slash its 2026 oil demand outlook, potentially tightening the global supply-demand balance • Oil Fuel Fund deficit surpasses THB 100 billion, prompting cuts to subsidies and higher levies on gasoline • NESDC to revise Thailand’s GDP figures after MPI methodology update • Dollar retreats as markets await CPI

• Oil settled above US$104 as hurricane disruption outweighed tentative US–Iran diplomacy • US consumer confidence weakened while inflation expectations remained uncomfortably high • Italian production contracted as Europe confronted uneven growth and renewed price pressure • Japanese household spending remained weak, but the contraction was milder than expected • Canada employment declines for a second month

• U.S. labor markets remain firm as Initial Jobless Claims below forecast • BoE policymakers maintained a hawkish tone to cope with rising price index • Germany’s trade surplus narrowed in August as exports weakened • Oil prices rebounded again as escalating geopolitical tensions • Thailand set to raise international travel costs • Dollar pauses near 18-month high as U.S bond rout halts