Daily Market Insight

• Trump extends Iran ceasefire while keeping Hormuz blockade in place • Kevin Warsh emphasized central bank independence • Retail sales surge above expectations • Moody’s upgrades Thailand outlook to stable, affirms Baa1 rating • Dollar strengthens as geopolitics dominate markets

• US–Iran talks in focus as geopolitical tensions drive market volatility • Fitch warns US credit risk outlook worsens on Middle East conflict • ECB awaits more data before making policy decisions • Thailand mulls higher public debt for $30 billion borrowing • Dollar edges lower against major peers

• Strait of Hormuz stays shut as US seizes Iranian vessel • Fed’s Waller and Daly flag war-driven inflation risks, signal rates likely on hold • Japan nears 2% defense target as rising costs strain finances • China keeps benchmark lending rates unchanged • Dollar moves in line with Middle East tensions

• Israel and Lebanon agree to a 10-day ceasefire • Eurozone inflation revised higher to 2.6% in March • China GDP grows 5% in Q1, beats forecasts but momentum softens • Thailand cuts 2026 growth outlook to 1.3%, warns of rising risks from prolonged war • The dollar rebounds with higher oil prices despite positive geopolitics

• US–Iran tensions persist, but markets remain hopeful for a ceasefire • IMF cuts global growth outlook amid oil shock and war risks • US inflation misses forecasts but shows an upward trend amid high oil prices • Chinese economic data show some signs of impact from Middle East tensions • Thailand expects $950 million in revenue as tourists surge during Songkran • The dollar falls overall this week amid improving risk sentiment

• Ceasefire hopes persist but remain fragile • US fourth-quarter GDP growth revised lower to a 0.5% rate • PCE meets expectations but signals firming inflation ahead of energy-driven rise • Thai central bank pledges long rate pause to support economy • Dollar weakens but off intraday lows

• US Iran ceasefire deal remains fragile as tensions persist • Fed minutes show officials saw two-sided risks from Iran war • April’s first US treasury auctions attract stronger demand • Euro area retail sales dip slightly in February amid rising price pressures • Dollar weakens as a US–Iran ceasefire drives markets

• US and Iran strike two week ceasefire deal • Durable goods orders fall 1.4% in March as aircraft demand slumps • Thai inflation narrows decline in March • US reports $71.9B trade deficit with Thailand, highlights barriers and IP delays • Dollar slips ahead of Trump’s Iran Strait deadline

• Trump sets Tuesday deadline for Iran, threatens strikes on infrastructure • Nonfarm payrolls surge, underscoring economic resilience • US services PMI dips below expectations • China services PMI slows post-holiday • The dollar softens against G10 as Middle East tensions steer early-week sentiment

• Trump’s address sparks renewed tensions • Trump pushes new tariff wave on medicines and industrial metals • Iran, Oman draft hormuz traffic protocol • US initial jobless claims fall, surpassing forecasts • The dollar rises on Trump’s comments