Daily Market Insight

• US payrolls surge, putting September Fed hike in play • Trump pressures Fed to cut rates, threatens trade restrictions • US-Iran tensions escalate after weekend strikes • Eurozone retail sales miss forecasts in July • Thailand pauses data-center projects over resource strain • Dollar firms as strong NFP boosts Fed hike bets

• Waller favors September hold but remains data-dependent • US data point to resilient services and a stable labor market • Japan household spending slumps for eighth straight month • China Services PMI rebounds, but domestic demand remains soft • Fitch sees Thailand credit risks easing ahead of rating review • Dollar falls ahead of NFP as Waller tempers rate-hike bets

• Oil extends gains as US-Iran tensions keep geopolitical risks elevated • ADP signals further cooling in US labor market • Williams sees policy in good place, labor market remains solid • BoJ’s Takata opens door to larger, faster rate hikes • BoC holds rates while RBNZ hikes as inflation risks rise • Dollar eases as markets await US payrolls

• US-Iran strikes escalate, driving oil prices higher • US ISM PMI moderates, JOLTS signals cooling labour market • EU inflation surge keeps ECB on tightening path • China’s private manufacturing PMI expands as export demand strengthens • Dollar gains as Middle East tensions escalate

• US-Iran tensions remain elevated despite signals of limited escalation • Chicago PMI posts sharp downside surprise • German inflation edges higher as energy costs keep pressure on ECB • China PMIs signal continued economic weakness in August • South Korea exports surge as AI chip demand remains strong • Dollar edges lower amid light newsflow

• Warsh strikes hawkish tone as inflation remains elevated • US payrolls revised down while consumer sentiment improves • US-Iran tensions escalate after strike on Larak island • Spanish and French inflation accelerate on higher energy costs • Japan’s July data signal resilient domestic and external demand • Dollar gains as Warsh strikes hawkish tone

• Fed officials flag persistent inflation risks • ECB minutes show unanimous hold, further hike remains likely • Tokyo CPI firms as core inflation nears BoJ target • BoK and BSP raise rates again amid inflation risks • Thailand’s exports surge 21.6% in July • Dollar holds flat as markets await Warsh’s Jackson Hole address

• US data show sticky inflation and resilient demand • Oil trades choppily as conflicting geopolitical headlines drive markets • Nvidia sees 70% FY2028 growth as AI demand booms • BoT keeps rate at 1.00% amid uneven recovery • Dollar finds support from PCE and solid economic data

• US-Iran tensions ease on signs of Hormuz diplomatic progress • US data point to softer economic momentum • Canada imposes 15–50% tariffs on US imports • Germany’s Q2 growth revised higher to 0.3% • BOJ underlying inflation stays above 2% • Dollar slips amid softer US macro signals

• Bessent unveils ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ against Iran • US-Canada trade tensions escalate as Trump raises tariffs to 50% • Bessent signals further support for long-end Treasuries • Thailand plans tax on non-physical gold trading to tighten oversight • Dollar firms amid renewed trade and geopolitical risks