Daily Market Insight

• Geopolitical developments remain in focus • Trump threatens 100% tariffs over digital services taxes • US eases restrictions on Anthropic’s AI model for trusted users • China industrial profit growth slows in May • Dollar retreats on Friday, still notches weekly gain

• Oil rebounds as middle east risks remain elevated • US data reinforces resilient growth, sticky inflation • Tokyo inflation picks up as energy costs feed through • Thailand’s export growth remains robust despite wider trade deficit • Dollar slips after softer PCE, though inflation remains sticky

• Oil prices slip as Hormuz flows improve despite persistent geopolitical risks • Micron surges as AI demand drives stronger-than-expected outlook • Japan unveils ¥370tn investment plan to boost AI, chips and strategic industries • BoT keeps rate at 1.00% as growth improves, remains cautious on inflation risks • Dollar advances as safe-haven demand offsets lower yields

• US data paints mixed picture as PMIs strengthen while regional surveys soften • US senate votes to halt Iran war • Eurozone PMI contraction eases in June • BOJ signals further rate hikes as members push toward neutral policy rate • MSCI delays Indonesia market status review to November • Dollar firms amid broad risk-off moves

• Iran-US talks advance, easing energy market concerns • Japan PMI strengthens as manufacturing drives growth, but cost pressures rise • Starmer quits and sets out plan for new UK PM by September • China keeps loan prime rate unchanged for 13th straight month in June • Dollar gains across G10 as quiet US calendar shifts focus to PCE

• US–Iran talks remain uncertain, renewing ceasefire and market risks • US weighs $80bn supplemental spending plan • UK retail sales rose 1.2% in May, beating forecasts • Starmer on the brink with resignation plan expected • Dollar remains firm, supported by Fed hawkishness and residual geopolitical risks

• US-Iran peace deal boosts sentiment • Japan inflation holds steady as subsidies restrain energy • Central bank decisions broadly aligned with market expectations • S&P keeps Thai sovereign credit rating intact at BBB+ • Dollar extends gains after hawkish Fed

• Fed holds rates steady, removes forward guidance • Warsh reinforces hawkish Fed stance, signals policy framework review • US retail sales beat expectations, signaling resilient US consumer demand • UK inflation unexpectedly holds steady at 2.8% in May • Dollar rallies as Fed delivers hawkish shift, markets price year-end hike

• Oil falls on easing middle east risks and expectations of higher supply • BoJ hikes rates and pauses bond tapering, maintains gradual tightening path • China domestic demand weakens as consumption and investment slump • Thailand adopts 15% global minimum tax • Dollar weakens as oil falls; markets await Fed

• Markets turn risk-on as US-Iran deal eases geopolitical concerns • US data disappoints, but market reaction remains muted • Eurozone industrial production edges higher in April • Dollar weakens as US-Iran deal boosts risk sentiment; focus shifts to FOMC and BoJ