- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.765 – 33.775 this morning, supportive level at 33.65 resistance level at 33.85
- SET Index: 1,579.03 (+1.05%), 26 Oct 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,676.77 (+0.70%), 26 Oct 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.250 (-5.19bps), 26 Oct 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 5.000 (0bps), 26 Oct 2026
- Oil retreats from six-month highs, but geopolitical supply risks keep inflation concerns elevated
- US activity returns above trend, supporting a firm dollar and limiting the case for near-term easing
- German confidence beats expectations, offering near-term support to the euro
- Thailand’s import surge overshadows robust export growth, driving a sharp trade deficit
Oil retreats from six-month highs, but geopolitical supply risks keep inflation concerns elevated
Brent crude fell 0.8% to USD 115.81/bbl, while WTI declined 1.46% to USD 101.76/bbl, following reports of Qatar-led efforts to de-escalate tensions with Iran. Nevertheless, Houthi attacks and continuing Middle East supply risks leave energy-driven inflation elevated, reinforcing expectations that major central banks will maintain a relatively hawkish policy stance.
US activity returns above trend, supporting a firm dollar and limiting the case for near-term easing
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.07 in September, from -0.08 in August, indicating that economic activity expanded slightly above its historical trend. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates this week, but price around an 80% probability of a December rate hike, as resilient growth and high energy costs sustain inflation risks.
German confidence beats expectations, offering near-term support to the euro
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index increased to 90.2 in October, above the 90.0 consensus and September’s 89.9. Expectations strengthened to 91.6, although the current-conditions index slipped to 88.8, suggesting that fiscal stimulus and stronger manufacturing orders are improving the outlook ahead of a still-fragile recovery.
Thailand’s import surge overshadows robust export growth, driving a sharp trade deficit
Thailand’s exports expanded 24.0% YoY to USD 38.44 billion in September 2026, marking the 27th consecutive month of growth, supported by electronics and AI-related global demand. However, imports surged 50.4% to USD 44.30 billion, significantly outpacing export growth and resulting in a substantial trade deficit of USD 5.86 billion. For January–September, the cumulative trade deficit widened to USD 43.69 billion, highlighting rising import demand and increasing pressure on Thailand’s external balance.
Firm US activity and
high oil prices support the dollar ahead of key policy decisions
The 10-year government bond yield
(interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.250 (-5.19bps). The benchmark
government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.188, -5.19 bps. Meantime, the latest
closed US 10-year bond yields was 5.000 (0bps). USDTHB on the previous trading
day closed around 33.79, moving in the range 33.765 – 33.775 this morning.
USDTHB could be closed between 33.65-33.85 today. The dollar should
remain supported against the baht by elevated oil prices, Thailand's widening
trade deficit and the Federal Reserve's tightening bias, outweighing the
support to the baht from robust AI-related exports. The outlook will
subsequently hinge on forthcoming US growth and inflation data, as well as the
Federal Reserve's policy guidance, with resilient data and higher Treasury
yields reinforcing further USD/THB gains, whereas softer data and easing oil
prices could precipitate a correction.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
