- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.57 – 33.585 this morning, supportive level at 33.42 resistance level at 33.68
- SET Index: 1,571.72 (-0.08%), 19 Oct 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,690.73 (+0.41%), 19 Oct 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.309 (-0.42bps), 19 Oct 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 5.150 (+6.00bps), 19 Oct 2026
- US housing sends a sharper high-rate warning
- French fiscal and political risks pressure the euro and sovereign bonds
- BoJ sees underlying inflation near target, leaving room to tighten
- China’s growth accelerates as exports and industrial production remain resilient
- China’s consumption and property sectors remain key drags on domestic demand
US housing sends a sharper high-rate warning
The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing index fell to 29 in October from 32, below the 31 consensus and its lowest since June 2012. Prospective-buyer traffic dropped to 18 from 23, while 43% of builders reported cutting prices, the highest share in 2020-26. Builders cited costly construction credit, materials, diesel and labor shortages. The release signals restrictive-rate transmission, though the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6bp to 5.15% as investors focused on inflation and supply risks.
French fiscal and political risks pressure the euro and sovereign bonds
French assets sold off as widespread protests intensified concerns over political stability, the 2027 budget and the government’s ability to control its fiscal deficit. France’s 10-year yield rose by more than 10 bps, the CAC 40 fell around 1.7%, and the euro weakened against the dollar. The widening French-German bond spread, near levels associated with the euro-area debt crisis, added a country-specific risk premium to the single currency.
BoJ sees underlying inflation near target, leaving room to tighten
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation was “quite close” to the 2% target, supported by tight labor conditions and strong AI-related investment and exports. Markets broadly expect the BOJ to keep its policy rate at 1.25% on 30 October but potentially signal an increase to 1.50% as early as December.
China’s growth accelerates as exports and industrial production remain resilient
China’s Q3 GDP expanded 4.5% YoY, above the 4.4% consensus and up from 4.3% in Q2, bringing growth to 4.6% in Jan–Sep. Export strength, particularly in AI-related electronics and equipment, supported activity, while industrial production accelerated to 5.5% YoY in September, keeping the economy on track toward the government’s 4.5–5.0% growth target.
China’s consumption and property sectors remain key drags on domestic demand
China’s domestic recovery remained uneven, with retail sales rising only 1.1% YoY in September, significantly lagging industrial activity. Meanwhile, property investment plunged 20.6% in Jan–Sep, underscoring continued real-estate weakness and subdued household confidence despite Beijing’s efforts to stimulate consumption.
Dollar steady as safe-haven demand offsets softer rate expectations.
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.309 (-0.42bps). The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.246, -0.74 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 5.150 (+6 bps). USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.53, moving in the range 33.57 – 33.585 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.42-33.68 today. The dollar’s near-term direction is likely to be firm but volatile, supported by U.S.–Iran risks, elevated global energy costs and fiscal stress in Europe, while lower Treasury yields and an 80.5% probability of an October Fed hold limit further upside.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
