- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.39 – 33.42 this morning, supportive level at 33.30 resistance level at 33.50
- SET Index: 1,573.01 (-0.18%), 15 Oct 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,659.44 (-1.09%), 16 Oct 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.313 (-5.69bps), 15 Oct 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 5.090 (-1.00bps), 16 Oct 2026
- US import prices accelerate while industrial output beats
- US Producer inflation accelerates as energy costs spread across the economy
- US Retail sales beat expectations, but underlying spending softens
- Warsh stresses price stability without committing to another hike
- IMF sees further ECB tightening as energy inflation persists
US import prices accelerate while industrial output beats
September import prices rose 1.1% month on month versus 0.8% expected; August was revised to 0.5% from 0.7%, while the annual rate accelerated to 8.1% from 6.7%. Fuel imports increased 4.8% and prices excluding food and fuel rose 0.7%. Industrial production
also gained 0.7% versus 0.4% expected after a 0.1% August rise; manufacturing added 0.3% and capacity use reached 76.9%. Broad price pressure alongside resilient output strengthens the case for restrictive US rates.
US Producer inflation accelerates as energy costs spread across the economy
September PPI, released on 15 October, jumped 1.3% MoM and 6.3% YoY, exceeding the Reuters consensus of 0.5% MoM. Energy prices rose 10.8%, while services increased 0.8%, signaling broader price pressure. Economists subsequently estimated September core PCE growth at 0.31–0.36% MoM, although these remain forecasts rather than released data.
US Retail sales beat expectations, but underlying spending softens
September retail sales increased 0.8% MoM, above the 0.3% forecast, but gasoline-station receipts surged 6.4%. The GDP-linked retail control group rose only 0.1%, following 1.2% in August, pointing to softer underlying consumption. Initial jobless claims remained low at 199,000, leaving the Fed with persistent inflation but no clear labor-market downturn.
Warsh stresses price stability without committing to another hike
Speaking at the IMF meetings in Bangkok on 16 October, Kevin Warsh said AI investment was supporting growth while adding near-term demand and inflation pressure. He reaffirmed the commitment to price stability but gave no guidance on further tightening. Markets continued to favor an October pause, with 17% odds of an October hike and 89% for December.
Euro area growth remains resilient, while energy inflation keeps price risks elevated
The ECB projects euro-area growth of 0.9% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028. September headline inflation rose to 3.8%, with core inflation at 2.5%, following 25bp rate hikes in June and September. The ECB maintains a measured, data-dependent policy stance as higher energy prices are expected to keep inflation above target into the first half of 2027.
Dollar likely to consolidate, with AI risks limiting upside
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.313 (-5.69bps). The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.253, -5.76 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 5.090 (-1 bps). USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.54, moving in the range 33.39 – 33.42 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.30-33.50 today. With persistent inflation and December tightening expectations provide support, while AI-related growth concerns and lower Treasury yields cap gains. Near-term consolidation looks more defensible than a renewed one-way rally; another sharp AI sell-off would increase downside risk, while higher oil prices remain supportive against energy-importing currencies.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
