- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.61 – 33.63 this morning, supportive level at 33.50 resistance level at 33.75
- SET Index: 1,582.2 (+0.37%), 6 Oct 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,818.9 (+0.58%), 6 Oct 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.407 (+0.85 bps), 6 Oct 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 5.27 (-4.00 bps), 6 Oct 2026
- U.S. ADP hiring gains momentum reinforcing labor market resilience
- U.S. trade deficit widens on AI-linked imports, weighing on Q3 GDP
- Eurozone retail sales edge higher despite slump in fuel sales
- France’s fiscal concerns are back as widening deficits and the higher borrowing costs
- BoJ Uchida showed a mixed signal speech in more rate hikes
- Thai September inflation accelerated again but below market forecast
- Dollar slipped from recent highs as treasury yields eased ahead of the Fed minutes
U.S. ADP hiring gains momentum reinforcing labor market resilience
The weekly update of the monthly ADP National Employment Report showed that U.S. private employers added an average of 23,750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending September 19, which accelerated for the fifth week, compared to the previous week of 22,500 jobs. This suggests some resilience in the labor market.
U.S. trade deficit widens on AI-linked imports, weighing on Q3 GDP
The U.S. trade deficit jumped 13.7% in August to $105.6 billion, the largest since March 2025, as record imports of industrial supplies and AI-related capital goods outpaced modest export gains. Economists expect net trade to subtract materially from third‑quarter growth and note that strong import demand underscores domestic strength but complicates the Fed’s inflation and rates outlook.
Eurozone retail sales edge higher despite slump in fuel sales
Retail sales in the eurozone rose 0.1%MoM in August, compared to a 0.6%MoM decline in July, according to preliminary estimates released by Eurostat. Sales of food, drinks, and tobacco recorded a monthly increase of 0.1% in the euro area and 0.3% in the EU, while automotive fuel sales dropped by 1.9% and 1.3%, respectively. On an annual basis, the retail sales index rose by 0.8%YoY in the euro area and by 1.2%YoY across the EU in August.
France’s fiscal concerns are back as widening deficits and the higher borrowing costs
The state budget deficit widened to EUR 159.6 billion in the January-August period from EUR 157.5 billion a year earlier, while industrial output unexpectedly contracted in August 2026. At the same time, concerns over debt sustainability have intensified as French borrowing costs climbed to their highest levels in over two decades. The yield on France’s 10-year government bond briefly approached 5.0% last week before easing to around 4.9%, highlighting mounting market scrutiny of the country’s public finances and political outlook.
BoJ Uchida showed a mixed signal speech in more rate hikes
BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida said that financial conditions remain accommodative and supportive of economic activity despite September rate hike. It was also said that the artificial intelligence (AI) is a large positive demand shock pushing up activity and prices. This speech delivers his first public remarks since September's rate hike to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years on Tuesday. Eventually, market pricing currently favors a pause, due to mixed signals for under consideration at the October policy meeting.
Thai September inflation accelerated again but below market forecast
Thailand's headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.82%YoY in September below the market expectation of 3.10%YoY, after a 2.53%YoY increase in the previous month, driven by higher fuel and food prices. Domestic fuel prices remain at a higher level than the previous year. Also, the price of prepared food has increased due to rising production costs in several areas, coupled with increases in the price of fresh food. While core inflation was at 1.50%YoY, slightly above the previous month of 1.44%YoY. Additionally, the ministry narrowly adjusted its 2026 inflation forecast to 1.8% to 2.2% from a previous estimate of 1.5% to 2.5%.
Dollar slipped from recent highs as treasury yields eased ahead of the Fed minutes
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.407, +0.85 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.355, +0.70 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 5.27, -4.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.62 Moving in a range of 33.61-33.63 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.50-33.75 today. The dollar slipped slightly last night before turning firmed on this morning as the U.S. treasury bond rout eased up and investors look ahead to upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes, while the euro has been trending lower along with the widening spread between German and French bond yields. The USD/JPY round-trips a dip on a BoJ speech about AI.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
