- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.05 – 33.08 this morning, supportive level at 32.95 resistance level at 33.25
- SET Index: 1,609.8 (-0.46%), 5 Aug 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,723.6 (-0.17%), 5 Aug 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.082 (-1.46 bps), 5 Aug 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.63 (+0.00 bps), 5 Aug 2026
- US ADP nonfarm payroll disappointed in July
- US services activity remained resilient
- China services growth slows sharply as domestic demand loses momentum
- RBI holds rates steady as inflation risks keep policymakers cautious
- Japan weighs temporary food tax cut as BoJ maintains tightening bias
- Thailand inflation cools further, supporting a prolonged rate pause
- Thai Baht gains momentum as oil prices retreat and US dollar soften
US ADP nonfarm payroll disappointed in July
US ADP private sector employment rose by 44,000 jobs in July, down from a revised 95,000 in June and well below economists’ expectations of 70,000, pointing to a continued moderation in labor market conditions. Hiring was concentrated in education and healthcare, while leisure and hospitality, trade, transportation, and mining recorded job losses. Meanwhile, pay gains for job-stayers held steady at 4.4%, while pay growth for job-changers rose to 7%, the largest year-over-year increase since August 2025.
US services activity remained resilient
US ISM Services PMI rising to 54.1 and marking a 25th consecutive month of expansion, supported by stronger business activity and new orders. However, employment slipped back into contraction, while price pressures intensified, with the Prices Index climbing above 70% for the fourth time in five months. Despite ongoing concerns over inflation, mortgage rates, and energy costs, easing supply constraints and solid demand suggest the services sector continues to underpin US economic growth.
China services growth slows sharply as domestic demand loses momentum
China’s services sector expanded at its slowest pace in 10 months, with the Rating Dog Services PMI falling to 50.4 in July from 54.1, well below the 53.7 consensus. Softer domestic demand weighed on business activity and new orders, while business confidence slipped to its lowest level since February 2020. However, export demand remained resilient, employment increased for a third consecutive month, and input cost inflation eased to its weakest level since January.
RBI holds rates steady as inflation risks keep policymakers cautious
The RBI left its Repo Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected, while maintaining a neutral policy stance. Governor Malhotra said domestic demand continues to support growth but policymakers need greater confidence that inflation is under control before adjusting rates. The RBI slightly raised its FY27 GDP forecast to 6.7% while lowering its CPI forecast to 5.0%, and reiterated its commitment to maintaining ample liquidity and limiting excessive FX market volatility.
Japan weighs temporary food tax cut as BoJ maintains tightening bias
Japan’s ruling LDP approved the proposal of cutting the food sales tax to 1% from 8% for two years starting next April, a move that could create an annual revenue shortfall of over ¥4 trillion, while BoJ policymakers signaled that further rate hikes remain appropriate if economic and inflation trends evolve as expected.
Thailand inflation cools further, supporting a prolonged rate pause
Thailand’s headline inflation unexpectedly slowed for a third consecutive month to 1.95% YoY in July from 2.42%, below market expectations, largely reflecting lower domestic fuel prices amid easing global oil prices. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.73%, while core inflation edged up to 1.34%. The softer inflation backdrop supports the BoT’s ability to keep policy rates unchanged to support economic growth.
Thai Baht gains momentum as oil prices retreat and US dollar soften
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.082, -1.46 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.053, -1.31 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.63, +0.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.20 Moving in a range of 33.05-33.08 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.95-33.25 today. The Thai Baht strengthened quickly which was driven by falling global crude oil prices dropping below $80 per barrel for the first time in three weeks and a weaker US Dollar to below 100-level following easing Middle East tensions after peace talk.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
