- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.515 – 32.54 this morning, supportive level at 32.40 resistance level at 32.60
- SET Index: 1,588.05 (-0.23%), 16 June 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,511.35 (-0.57%), 16 June 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.108 (+0.58 bps), 16 June 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.43 (-4.00 bps), 16 June 2026
- Oil falls on easing middle east risks and expectations of higher supply
- BoJ hikes rates and pauses bond tapering, maintains gradual tightening path
- China domestic demand weakens as consumption and investment slump
- Thailand adopts 15% global minimum tax
- Dollar weakens as oil falls; markets await Fed
Oil falls on easing middle east risks and expectations of higher supply
Crude oil prices remained under pressure as easing Middle East tensions and expectations of a US-Iran peace deal ahead of Friday’s signing weighed on sentiment. Further downside came from reports that Qatar could restore half of its LNG output within a month after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, with capacity reaching 80% within two months. Additional reports that the US may allow Iran to resume oil and fuel exports under the agreement reinforced expectations of higher supply and a gradual normalization of energy flows.
BoJ hikes rates and pauses bond tapering, maintains gradual tightening path
BoJ raised its policy rate by 25bps to 1.00% as expected and announced a pause in bond-buying tapering, keeping JGB purchases at around JPY 2tn/month from April 2027. The BoJ reiterated its commitment to further rate hikes depending on economic and price developments, while maintaining a cautious, data-dependent approach. Deputy Governor Uchida, in Governor Ueda’s absence, highlighted upside risks to inflation potentially exceeding the price target. Meanwhile, RBA held rates at 4.35% as expected, noting that previous hikes are slowing the economy. However, it warned inflation remains high and kept the option of further tightening open.
China domestic demand weakens as consumption and investment slump
China’s domestic demand weakened further, with consumer spending and investment falling to post-pandemic lows. Retail sales declined 0.6% YoY in May, marking the first drop since late 2022, while fixed-asset investment fell 4.1% in the first five months. In contrast, industrial production improved to 4.5% YoY, supported by strong exports and technology sectors. The property market remained under pressure, with new and resale home prices continuing to decline.
Thailand adopts 15% global minimum tax
Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the cabinet approved Thailand’s adoption of the OECD global minimum tax, setting a 15% floor for large multinationals with data exchange starting June 2027, aimed at curbing profit shifting and generating about THB 10 billion annually. The policy will shift BOI incentives from tax holidays to OECD-compliant subsidies or tax credits, with legal changes underway.
Dollar weakens as oil falls; markets await Fed
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.108, +0.58 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.09, -1.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.43, -4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.56, moving in a range of 32.515 – 32.54 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.40 – 32.60 today. The dollar weakened broadly as lower oil prices and falling yields weighed on the dollar, with markets anticipating a return to pre-war Hormuz oil flows. Additional pressure came from reports of Qatar restoring LNG output and potential US approval for Iran’s oil exports after a deal. US data was mixed, with housing starts plunging to a six-year low while import/export prices exceeded expectations, though index reaction was limited. Markets now focus on the US-Iran deal and Kevin Warsh’s first Fed appearance, where a dovish tone is expected but a more hawkish stance could support the dollar. The euro rose back above 1.1600 on USD weakness and hawkish ECB signals, the British pound edged higher ahead of UK CPI, while the Japanese yen stayed steady after the BoJ hike and tapering pause.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
