- USDTHB: moving in the range 31.035 – 31.055 this morning, supportive level at 31.00 resistance level at 31.20
- SET Index: 1,264.8 (-0.83%), 25 Dec 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,932.1 (+0.3%), 24 Dec 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.693 (-1.25 bps), 25 Dec 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.15 (-3.0 bps), 24 Dec 2025
- Japan PM signals fiscal discipline to calm market concerns over budget
- Ueda signals further rate hikes amid rising confidence in price goal
- Tokyo inflation cools more than expected
- Thai trade deficit widens on surging imports
- Dollar remains steady amid holiday-quiet markets
Japan PM signals fiscal discipline to calm market concerns over budget
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the government’s new budget will stay disciplined despite record spending. The 122.3 trillion yen budget limits new bond issuance to 29.6 trillion yen, keeping debt reliance at 24.2%—the lowest since 1998—even with a 21.3 trillion yen stimulus to help households.
Ueda signals further rate hikes amid rising confidence in price goal
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that further interest-rate hikes are likely next year, citing growing confidence that the central bank is approaching its sustainable price target. He reiterated that rates would rise if the economic outlook materializes, noting that real rates remain very low. Ueda added that moderate increases in both wages and prices are expected to continue next year and beyond, with the likelihood of achieving the BOJ’s baseline scenario steadily increasing.
Tokyo inflation cools more than expected
Tokyo’s inflation cooled more than expected in December as pressures from food and energy prices eased, though the slowdown is unlikely to dissuade the Bank of Japan from pursuing further interest-rate increases. Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 2.3% from a year earlier, down sharply from 2.8% in November and below economists’ forecasts of 2.5%. The deceleration, the first since August, was driven largely by softer food price growth and declining energy costs. Headline inflation in the capital eased to 2.0% from 2.7% a year earlier, while a broader measure excluding energy slowed to 2.6%.
Thai trade deficit widens on surging imports
Thailand posted a larger-than-expected trade deficit for the second month in a row, as imports surged while export growth remained sluggish, raising concerns about economic competitiveness amid a stronger baht. Exports rose 7.1%, missing forecasts, while imports jumped 17.6%, resulting in a $2.73 billion deficit versus the $1.36 billion expected. Shipments to the US, Thailand’s largest market, soared nearly 38% in November due to strong demand for electronics and AI-related infrastructure, whereas exports to China fell 7.8%. Meanwhile, agricultural exports declined 15.7%, and agro-industrial shipments dropped 2.3%. Overall exports rose 12.6% from January to November, with the commerce ministry projecting 11.6–12.1% growth for 2025. For 2026, exports are expected to grow 1.1% or fall up to 3.1%, supported in part by the electronics cycle, though risks such as US tariff negotiations remain.
Dollar remains steady amid holiday-quiet markets
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.693, -1.25 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.647, -1.56 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.15, -3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 31.10, moving in a range of 31.035 – 31.055 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 31.00 – 31.20 today. The dollar index is holding around 97.90, recovering part of this week’s earlier losses, while trading volumes remain subdued amid the holiday period. The Japanese yen also showed little movement during the holiday. Nonetheless, the lower-than-expected Tokyo CPI reading pushed USD/JPY above the 156.20 level.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
