- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.28-32.295 this morning, supportive level at 32.20 resistance level at 32.40
- SET Index: 1,250.1 (+0.2%), 28 Aug 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,501.9 (+0.32%), 28 Aug 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.312 (-1.27 bps), 28 Aug 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.22 (-2.0 bps), 28 Aug 2025
- US Q2 growth upgraded as business investment gains momentum
- ECB maintains wait-and-see approach in July minutes
- Subsidies drag Tokyo inflation lower in August
- Thai manufacturing index declines more than expected in July
- Traders trimmed dollar positions ahead of upcoming PCE figures
US Q2 growth upgraded as business investment gains momentum
The second estimate of Q2 US GDP was revised higher to 3.3% (from 3.0%; expected 3.1%), with upward revisions to corporate profits (now +2.0% vs. prior -3.3%) and consumer spending (1.6% vs. 1.4%). On the inflation side, the GDP deflator was unchanged at 2.0%, PCE prices were revised slightly lower to 2.0% (from 2.1%), and core PCE remained at 2.5%. Economists noted that AI-related investment is helping to offset broader economic softness, and there’s little indication this support will fade in the near term. While real final sales to domestic purchasers were also revised up, this is unlikely to shift the Fed’s outlook, as the focus remains on downside risks in the labor market.
ECB maintains wait-and-see approach in July minutes
The ECB Minutes noted that some members saw the recent soft data as pointing to a less concerning outlook compared to the June meeting, though the overall environment was still seen as highly uncertain due to ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. It was also highlighted that interest rates were already providing substantial support for credit demand, and that the full effects of earlier rate cuts were still working their way through the economy.
Subsidies drag Tokyo inflation lower in August
Tokyo inflation eased in August, largely due to government utility subsidies, though it remained above the BoJ’s target. Core CPI rose 2.5% YoY (vs. 2.9% in July), while food prices excluding fresh items held steady at +7.4%. Services inflation dipped slightly to 2.0% from 2.1%, signaling stable underlying pressure. As the slowdown reflects temporary factors, it’s unlikely to shift the BoJ’s current tightening path.
Thai manufacturing index declines more than expected in July
Thailand’s Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) fell 3.98% YoY in July, the first drop in four months and the lowest level in nearly two years, driven by weaker car output. The decline was steeper than the expected 1.1% fall and followed a revised 0.41% rise in June. MPI is down 0.7% YTD, prompting the industry to cut its 2025 growth forecast to 0–0.5% from 0–1%.
Traders trimmed dollar positions ahead of upcoming PCE figures
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.312, -1.27 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.300, -0.50 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.22, -2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.40, moving in a range of 32.28 – 32.295 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.20 – 32.40 today. The dollar was broadly softer despite an upward revision to Q2 GDP and stronger final sales, as downward revisions to core PCE and a drop in jobless claims failed to spur much reaction ahead of Fed Governor Cook’s testimony and Friday’s PCE release. The euro gained on dollar weakness, briefly nearing 1.1700 before paring back. The British pound edged higher in choppy trade around 1.3500, with little in the way of domestic drivers, though reports of PM Starmer preparing a cabinet reshuffle and a new economic advisor ahead of the Autumn Budget drew some focus. The Japanese yen outperformed, with USD/JPY dropping below 147.00 as US-Japan yield differentials narrowed.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
