- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.655-32.715 this morning supportive level at 32.55 resistance level at 32.85
- SET Index: 1,163.4 (-1.3%), 27 May 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,921.5 (+2.03%), 27 May 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.846 (-1.62 bps), 27 May 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.43 (-8.0 bps), 27 May 2025
- US consumer confidence jumps most in four years on trade truce
- US core capital goods orders decrease by most since October
- Japanese government may tweak bond issuance
- Dollar rebounds, but trade and debt worries remain
US consumer confidence jumps most in four years on trade truce
US consumer confidence rebounded sharply in May, with the Conference Board's gauge increasing by 12.3 points to 98, marking the biggest monthly gain in four years. The improvement in confidence was broad across age and income groups as well as political affiliations. Both the present situation index and expectations index improved, reaching 135.9 and 72.8 respectively. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the next 12 months eased to 6.5% from 7.0%. It should be noted that around half of the survey responses were collected after the May 12 announcement pausing some tariffs on Chinese imports.
US core capital goods orders decrease by most since October
Durable goods orders fell 6.3% in April, performing better than the expected 7.8% drop but down sharply from March’s 7.6% gain. Orders excluding defense dropped 7.5%, while orders excluding transportation rose slightly by 0.2%, up from a 0.2% decline previously. Meanwhile, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key investment indicator, fell 1.3%, after a 0.3% rise in March. Analysts noted this report signals weakening investment demand, likely due to recent tariff shocks.
Japanese government may tweak bond issuance
Japan’s Ministry of Finance may revise its debt issuance strategy after a sharp increase in long-term JGB yields. The MOF has reportedly circulated a questionnaire to market participants seeking feedback on issuance plans and current market conditions. This sparked speculation that it may reduce issuance of super-long bonds. The move helped push yields on Japanese bonds down, weakening the yen and affecting global debt markets, with yields on US Treasuries and German bunds also declining.
Dollar rebounds, but trade and debt worries remain
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.846, -1.62 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.842, -1.68 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.43, -8.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.69, moving in a range of 32.655– 32.715 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.55 – 32.85 today. The dollar strengthened against all G10 currencies, despite a lack of major headline drivers ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and Nvidia earnings. Economic data included a smaller-than-expected drop in durable Goods and stronger-than-forecast Consumer Confidence, though market reaction was muted. Fed officials also spoke, with limited market impact—Kashkari noted that tariff-driven inflation shouldn’t be dismissed, reinforcing the case for holding rates steady until clearer signals emerge. The euro edged further below the 1.1400 level amid a stronger USD, as markets also absorbed multiple data releases and remarks from ECB officials. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened after a decline in super-long JGB yields, amid reports that Japan may reduce issuance of these bonds.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
