- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.305-36.355 this morning supportive level at 36.20 resistance level at 36.50
· SET Index: 1,401.1 (+1.84%), 9 Apr 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 5,209.9 (+0.14%), 9 Apr 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.62 (+4.22 bps), 9 Apr 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.36 (-6.00 bps), 9 Apr 2024
- US small-business sentiment slides to lowest level in more than 11 years
- BOJ will scrutinize trend inflation in adjusting monetary support, says Gov Ueda
- China's March new yuan loans seen rebounding; more stimulus expected
- US dollar flat as investors await inflation data; focus on yen action
US small-business sentiment slides to lowest level in more than 11 years US small-business confidence slipped to the lowest level in more than 11 years in March amid rising concerns about inflation. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.9 point to 88.5 last month, the lowest level since December 2012. It was the 27th straight month the index was below the 50-year average of 98. Twenty-five percent of owners reported inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, reflecting higher input and labor costs, up 2 points from February. The share of businesses raising average selling prices rose 7 points from the prior month. That aligns with a pick-up in consumer prices in the first two months of the year. Price increases were prevalent in the finance, retail, construction, wholesale and transportation sectors. There was also an increase in the share of businesses raising compensation even as demand for labor is cooling.
BOJ will scrutinize trend inflation in adjusting monetary support, says Gov Ueda Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday the central bank will adjust the degree of monetary stimulus by scrutinizing whether trend inflation will accelerate towards its 2% target as projected. The BOJ ended eight years of negative interest rates and other remnants of its massive stimulus programme last month on the view that sustained achievement of its 2% inflation target has come into sight. "If we waited until trend inflation actually hit 2%, inflation could have gained momentum and sharply exceeded 2%. That would require raising rates aggressively. We wanted to reduce such risk," Ueda said, explaining why the BOJ exited its stimulus programme in March.
China's March new yuan loans seen rebounding; more stimulus expected China's new yuan loans are expected to rebound in March from a sharp drop in February, as the central bank seeks to bolster economic growth amid expectations for more stimulus in the coming months. Chinese banks are estimated to have issued 3.56 trillion yuan ($492.11 billion) in net new yuan loans last month, more than double the 1.45 trillion yuan in February, according to the median estimate in the survey of 22 economists. The expected new loans would be lower than 3.89 trillion yuan issued in the same month a year earlier. After record growth in credit in January, new lending declined in February. If the March reading matches forecasts, total lending in the first quarter would reach 9.93 trillion yuan, versus a record of 10.6 trillion yuan in the first quarter of last year.
US dollar flat as investors await inflation data; focus on yen action The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.62, +4.22 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.58, +4.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.36, -6.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.56. Moving in a range of 36.305-36.355 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.20-36.50 today. The dollar was little changed, with investors cautious ahead of US inflation data to be released on Wednesday, even as the yen hovered near multi-decade lows, keeping traders on alert for any possible action from Japan to prop up its currency. Economists expect the headline US consumer price index (CPI) to have gained 0.3% on a monthly basis, compared with a 0.4% rise in February, according to a Reuters poll. Core CPI is also expected to climb 0.3% for the month of March. Ahead of the CPI report, the US rate futures market has raised the odds of a June rate cut to 58%, up from 52% late on Monday, the CME's FedWatch tool showed. For 2024, fed funds futures have priced in about 74 basis points (bps) in cuts, or about three rate decreases of 25 basis points (bps) each, data showed.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
