- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.26-36.37 this morning supportive level at 36.15 resistance level at 36.40
· SET Index: 1,381.0 (-0.48%), 22 Mar 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 5,234,2 (-0.14%), 22 Mar 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.55 (+1.13 bps), 22 Mar 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.22 (-5.00 bps), 22 Mar 2024
- US economy on solid ground as weekly jobless claims fall, home sales surge
- German business sentiment rises in March
- BOJ Tankan to show Q1 manufacturers' optimism eased slightly, services improved
- Dollar strengthens after big shift in global rate outlook
US economy on solid ground as weekly jobless claims fall, home sales surge Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 210,000 for the week ended March 16, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims in the latest week. Claims have been mostly bouncing around in a 200,000-213,000 range since February. Despite a flurry of high-profile layoffs at the start of the year, employers have largely been hoarding labor after struggling to find workers during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. In a separate report on Thursday, the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales jumped 9.5% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.38 million units, the highest level since February 2023. The monthly increase in sales was also the largest since February 2023.
German business sentiment rises in March German business morale improved in March and beat expectations, a survey showed on Friday, though probably not enough to prevent Europe's biggest economy from slipping into another recession. The Ifo institute said its business climate index stood at 87.8 compared with a reading of 86.0 forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll. Germany is broadly expected to enter another technical recession in the first quarter of this year, after its economy shrank by 0.3% in the final quarter of last year. Germany's economic downturn eased slightly in March as business activity in the country’s service sector came close to stabilizing, the HCOB German Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index(PMI), compiled by S&P Global.
BOJ Tankan to show Q1 manufacturers' optimism eased slightly, services improved Business optimism among Japanese manufacturers likely eased slightly in the first quarter due to some auto production disruptions, but service-sector sentiment improved further. The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) closely watched "Tankan" business survey is expected to show the headline big manufacturers' sentiment index eased to +10 in March from +12 in December, according to 14 economists surveyed by Reuters. The BOJ ended years of unorthodox policy this week, raising rates for the first time in 17 years in a historic shift away from decades of massive monetary stimulus. But it is expected to proceed cautiously amid worries that further rises in borrowing costs could hurt the fragile economic recovery.
Dollar strengthens after big shift in global rate outlook The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.55, +1.13 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.54, +1.50 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.22, +5.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.42. Moving in a range of 36.26-36.37 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.15-36.40 today. The dollar headed toward a second week of gains on Friday, after a slight rate hike in Japan gave the yen a slight reprieve and a surprise cut in Switzerland highlighted the gap in interest rate policy between the Federal Reserve and other central banks. The week marked a shift in global monetary policy as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and central banks in developing countries cut rates or indicated their intention to do so, with June the likely moment for the European Central Bank to move. The dollar rose against all G-10 currencies except the yen, as the relatively strong US economy and high interest rates kept the carry trade alive. But the Swiss rate cut, the first by a major central bank in Europe, marked a definitive shift. The Fed left its overnight rate on hold between 5.25%-5.5% and stuck with projections for three cuts by year's end. But it also said it would not cut until it was confident that inflation was sustainably declining toward its 2% target.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
