- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.45-35.59 this morning supportive level at 35.40 resistance level at 35.70
· SET Index: 1,364.5 (-0.63%), 31 Jan 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 4,845.7 (-1.62%), 31 Jan 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.65 (+0.89 bps), 31 Jan 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.99 (-7.00 bps), 31 Jan 2024
- Fed leaves rates unchanged, but signals no rush to cut amid 'elevated' inflation
- Japan Jan factory activity shrinks modestly on softer demand
- Chinese manufacturing activity rises as expected in Jan
- Dollar rebounds as Fed's Powell sees March rate cut as unlikely
Fed leaves rates unchanged, but signals no rush to cut amid 'elevated' inflation The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged Wednesday, though signaled no rush to cut rates as more confidence was needed that "elevated" inflation continues to slow toward target at a time of "solid" economic growth and strong job gains. Fed sees rates higher for longer as inflation battle continues; Powell shoots down March cut hopes "The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent," the Fed said in its monetary policy statement. Fed chairman Jerome Powell dealt a further blow to a March rate cut, saying it was unlikely the level of confidence would have improved enough by March to cut rates. While the odds of a March cut were dealt a blow, falling to about 30% from about 65% prior to the statement, some economists continued to keep hopes of an earlier rate cut alive.
Japan Jan factory activity shrinks modestly on softer demand Japan's factory activity shrank for an eighth straight month in January as output and new orders declined due to the subsiding economy at home and overseas. The final au Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 48.0 in January from 47.9 in December but remained below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction in activity, where it has languished since June. The two main subindexes of the PMI, output and new orders, declined for an eighth month in a row though the pace of the falls slowed. Also, worries remained over manufacturing activity in the coming months as outstanding business showed the sharpest depletion since August 2020. Manufacturers cited cost pressures grew due to higher prices of raw materials, labor and fuel. Some firms noted the impact of the supply disruption caused by a crisis in the Red Sea.
Chinese manufacturing activity rises as expected in Jan China’s manufacturing sector grew as expected in January with local manufacturers continuing to see growth in new orders and output amid a mild improvement in demand. The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose 50.8 in January as expected, keeping its pace of growth steady from the prior month. A reading above 50 indicates growth, with the Caixin PMI now remaining in expansion for a third straight month. The Caixin survey contrasted with government data released on Wednesday, which showed that Chinese manufacturing activity remained in contraction in January. But the Caixin survey differs from the official reading in its scope of businesses survey- wherein it focuses more on smaller, private enterprises, as opposed to the bigger, state-run enterprises covered by the official survey. Investors use both surveys to get a clearer picture of the Chinese economy.
Dollar rebounds as Fed's Powell sees March rate cut as unlikely The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.65, +0.89 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.63, +1.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.99, -7.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.44 Moving in a range of 35.45-35.59 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.40-35.70 today. The dollar gained on the euro and pared losses against the yen on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that a rate cut in March was not the US central bank's "base case.“ It came after the Fed offered a neutral and less dovish outlook on rates than many investors had expected. The US central bank left interest rates unchanged and dropped a longstanding reference to possible further hikes in borrowing costs. But it gave no hint that a rate cut was imminent.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
