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Daily Market Insight: 25 January 2024

25 ม.ค. 2567
  •  USDTHB: moving in the range 35.73-35.79 this morning supportive level at 35.65 resistance level at 35.95

·         SET Index: 1,381.2 (+1.80%), 24 Jan 2024

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,868.6 (+0.08%), 24 Jan 2024

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.71 (-3.64 bps), 24 Jan 2024

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 4.18 (+4.00 bps), 24 Jan 2024

 

  • US business activity picks up in January; inflation cooling
  • Euro zone business activity contracts again in January
  • German business activity deteriorates in Jan
  • US dollar falls ahead of GDP, inflation data; Fed in focus

 

US business activity picks up in January; inflation cooling US business activity picked up in January and inflation appeared to abate, with a measure of prices charged by companies for their products falling to the lowest level in more than 3-1/2 years, suggesting that the economy kicked off 2024 on a strong note. S&P Global said that its flash US Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, increased to 52.3 this month, the highest level since last June. The rise from 50.9 in December was driven by gains in both services and manufacturing activity. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector. The survey's flash manufacturing PMI rebounded to a 15-month high of 50.3 from 47.9 in December. Its flash services sector PMI climbed to 52.9, the highest reading since last June, from 51.4 in the prior month.

 

Euro zone business activity contracts again in January Euro zone businesses faced a tough start to 2024 with activity contracting again in January as demand continued to fall while price pressures rose due to tensions in the Red Sea, a survey showed. The manufacturing outlook did improve somewhat but remained in contractionary territory and was partly offset by a steeper decline in the bloc's dominant services industry. HCOB's preliminary euro zone Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 47.9 this month from December's 47.6, just shy of expectations in a Reuters poll for 48.0 but marking its eighth month below the 50-level separating growth from contraction. According to a recent Reuters poll the bloc was predicted to expand 0.1% this quarter.

 

German business activity deteriorates in Jan Germany's economic downturn worsened this month as both manufacturing and services activity contracted, with signs of Red Sea disruption hitting delivery times, a preliminary survey showed. Germany's services sector posted its steepest drop for five months while the decline in manufacturing output eased slightly, though the figure was flattered by longer delivery times which paradoxically boost the index. The HCOB German Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell for the seventh consecutive month to 47.1 in January from December's 47.4, below the 47.8 forecast by economists. The composite PMI index tracks the services and manufacturing sectors that together account for more than two-thirds of the German economy.

 

US dollar falls ahead of GDP, inflation data; Fed in focus The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.71, -3.64 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.73, -2.50 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.18, +4.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.83 Moving in a range of 35.73-35.79 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.65-35.95 today.
The US dollar dropped on Wednesday, taking a breather from recent gains, as investors consolidated positions and looked to economic data this week and the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week for more clues about the start of the easing cycle. The currency, however, cut its losses after data showed business activity in the world's largest economy picked up in January and a measure of inflation eased. A gauge of prices charged by companies for their products fell to the lowest level in more than 3-1/2 years, data showed. Investors are now looking to Thursday's first reading of the US gross domestic product for the fourth quarter, and another inflation reading - the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data - on Friday.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC

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