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Daily Market Insight: 21 September 2023

21 ก.ย. 2566
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 36.28-36.31 this morning supportive level at 36.15 resistance level at 36.45

·         SET Index: 1,5207.9 (-0.99%), 20 Sep 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,402.2 (-1.16%), 20 Sep 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.17 (+3.86 bps), 20 Sep 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 4.35 (-2.00 bps), 20 Sep 2023


  • Fed keeps rates steady, toughens policy stance as 'soft landing' hopes grow
  • German producer prices post biggest decline on record
  • Japan's exports extend declines as China slowdown bites
  • Dollar higher as Fed skips rate hike but stiffens hawkish stance


Fed keeps rates steady, toughens policy stance as 'soft landing' hopes grow The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but stiffened a hawkish monetary policy stance that its officials increasingly believe can succeed in lowering inflation without wrecking the economy or leading to large job losses. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate may still be lifted one more time this year to a peak 5.50%-5.75% range, according to updated quarterly projections released by the U.S. central bank, and rates kept significantly tighter through 2024 than previously expected. Indeed, monetary policy is expected to remain slightly restrictive into 2026 while the economy continues to largely grow at its estimated trend level of around 1.8%. Even as inflation declines for the rest of 2023 and in coming years, the Fed anticipates only modest initial reductions to its policy rate. That means the expected half percentage point of rate cuts in 2024 would have the net effect of raising the inflation-adjusted "real" rate.


German producer prices post biggest decline on record German producer prices posted their biggest year-on-year decline in August since data collection began in 1949, spurring hopes for further easing of inflation in Europe's largest economy. Producer prices decreased by 12.6% on the year, the federal statistics office reported. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 12.6% decline. As a result of the war in Ukraine, the increase in producer prices in August 2022 was 45.8% on the year, the highest ever registered since records began. Therefore, the comparison between August 2022 and August 2023 showed a strong decline. Germany's producer prices index, considered a key inflation indicator, has been easing steadily since September of last year.


Japan's exports extend declines as China slowdown bites Japan's exports fell in August for a second straight month, weighed by declines in China's demand for steel and heavy oil and stoking fears of a downturn in the face of elevated global interest rates. Ministry of Finance (MOF) data showed exports fell 0.8% year-on-year in August, slower than economists' median estimates of 1.7% decline and following a 0.3% drop in Japan's overseas shipments. It was the second straight month of annual declines. By destination, Japan's shipments to China, its largest trading partner, fell 11% year-on-year in August, marking a third straight month of double-digit drops. Exports to the United States rose 5.1% year-on-year in August, driven by shipments of cars, mining and construction machinery.


Dollar higher as Fed skips rate hike but stiffens hawkish stance The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.17, +3.86 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.14, -2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.35, -2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.20. Moving in a range of 36.28-36.31 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.15-36.45 today. The U.S. dollar edged higher against a basket of currencies, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but stiffened its hawkish stance with a further rate increase projected by the end of the year. As they did in June, Fed policymakers at the median still see the central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate peaking this year in the 5.50%-5.75% range, just a quarter of a percentage point above the current range. But from there, the Fed's updated quarterly projections show rates falling only half a percentage point in 2024 compared with the full percentage point of cuts anticipated at the meeting in June.


Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC