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Daily Market Insight: 29 May 2023

29 พ.ค. 2566
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 34.80-34.88 this morning supportive level at 34.70 resistance level at 35.00

·         SET Index: 1,530.8 (-0.30%), 26 May 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,205.5 (+1.30%), 26 May 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.59 (-1.53 bps), 26 May 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.80 (-3.00 bps), 26 May 2023


  • Strong US consumer spending, inflation readings put Fed in tough spot
  • UK shoppers boost spending despite inflation’s bite
  • China industrial profits tumble 18% in April as demand sputters
  • Dollar set for third week of gains as US debt talks loom large


Strong US consumer spending, inflation readings put Fed in tough spot U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in April, boosting the economy's growth prospects for the second quarter, and inflation picked up, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again next month. The growth picture was further brightened by other data from the Commerce Department on Friday showing a surprise rebound last month in orders of manufactured non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans. The reports added to labor market resilience, a rebound in factory production and a pickup in business activity in suggesting the economy was experiencing a spring revival after hitting a speed bump in the first quarter. They also increased the chances that the U.S. central bank would hike rates in June. Minutes of the Fed's May 2-3 policy meeting, showed policymakers "generally agreed" the need for further rate hikes "had become less certain.“


UK shoppers boost spending despite inflation’s bite British consumers picked up the pace of their spending last month and sales volumes over the three months to April grew by the most since mid-2021, according to official data that suggested limited impact from the surge in inflation. Sales volumes in April rose by a slightly stronger-than-expected 0.5% from March when they slumped by 1.2% as unusually heavy rain kept shoppers at home, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.3% rise in April, a month when welfare payments for many lower-income households rose. In the February-to-April period, sales were up by 0.8% from the previous three months, the biggest such increase since the three months to August 2021.


China industrial profits tumble 18% in April as demand sputters Profits at China's industrial firms slumped in the first four months of 2023, official data showed on Saturday, as companies continued to struggle with margin pressures and soft demand amid a faltering economic recovery. Profits fell 20.6% in January-April from a year earlier, compared with a 21.4% decline in the first three months, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). In April alone, industrial firms posted a 18.2% drop in profit year-on-year, according to the NBS, which only occasionally gives monthly figures. Profits shrank 19.2% in March. Chinese companies are struggling with both weak demand at home and softening demand in the country's major export markets Producer deflation deepened in April, with the producer price index (PPI) falling at the fastest clip since May 2020.


Dollar set for third week of gains as US debt talks loom large The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.59, -1.53 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.57, +1.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.20-2.70. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.80, -3.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.65 Moving in a range of 34.80-34.88 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.50-35.00 today. The dollar was set for a third straight weekly gain on Friday, as markets raised bets on higher-for-longer interest rates and amid closely watched last-ditch talks on the U.S. debt ceiling. Apparent progress in the talks between President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy helped ease investor jitters, but doubts remained about when both sides would reach agreement. Biden and McCarthy are closing in on a deal that would raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling for two years while capping spending on most items.


Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC