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Daily Market Insight: 17 May 2023

17 พ.ค. 2566
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 34.10-34.19 this morning supportive level at 34.00 resistance level at 34.25

·         SET Index: 1,539.8 (-0.10%), 16 May 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,109.9 (-0.64%), 16 May 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.51 (-0.04 bps), 16 May 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.54 (+4.00 bps), 16 May 2023


  • US manufacturing production surges in April on motor vehicles
  • Euro zone Q1 GDP growth confirmed at 0.1% q/q, Q1 exports jump
  • Japan emerges from recession on post-COVID consumer rebound
  • Dollar drifts higher as US debt ceiling in spotlight


US manufacturing production surges in April on motor vehicles Production at U.S. factories surged in April, driven by an increase in output at motor vehicle plants, but manufacturing continues to be constrained by higher interest rates. Manufacturing output accelerated 1.0% last month, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Data for March was revised down to show production at factories declining 0.8% instead of 0.5% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production gaining 0.1%. Output dropped 0.9% on a year-on-year basis in April. Motor vehicle production surged 9.3% last month after declining 1.9% in March. Excluding motor vehicles, manufacturing output rebounded 0.4% after dropping 0.7% in March. Manufacturing, which accounts for 11.3% of the U.S. economy, has been hamstrung by higher borrowing costs, which are undercutting demand for goods, typically bought on credit.


Euro zone Q1 GDP growth confirmed at 0.1% q/q, Q1 exports jump Euro zone economic growth was 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of the year, the EU’s statistics agency confirmed on Tuesday, with rising employment and a sharp increase in exports that boosted the euro zone trade surplus. Eurostat also confirmed its earlier estimate that gross domestic product in the 20 countries sharing the euro rose 1.3% year-on-year in the January-March period and said employment grew 0.6% on the quarter for a 1.7% year-on-year rise. While a more detailed breakdown of the GDP rise was not yet available, unadjusted trade data for the first quarter showed an 8.5% jump in exports over the same period of 2022 with unchanged imports, indicating net trade contributed to the growth.


Japan emerges from recession on post-COVID consumer rebound Japan's economy emerged from recession and grew faster than expected in the first quarter as a post-COVID consumption rebound offset global headwinds, shoring up hopes for a sustained recovery. But mounting signs of a slowdown in U.S., European and Chinese growth cloud the outlook for the export-reliant economy, heightening uncertainty on how soon the central bank can phase out its massive stimulus program. The world's third-largest economy grew an annualized 1.6% in January-March, government data showed on Wednesday, far exceeding market forecasts for a 0.7% gain and marking the first rise in three quarters. The growth followed a 0.1% fall in the final quarter of last year, which was revised down from a 0.1% rise.


Dollar drifts higher as US debt ceiling in spotlight The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.51, -0.04 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.51, +1.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.20-2.70. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.54, +4.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.90 Moving in a range of 34.10-34.19 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.70-34.20 today. The dollar edged higher on Tuesday in choppy trading, with no clear direction, as investors kept an eye on debt ceiling talks to avert a possible default that could reverberate across asset markets and damage confidence in the world's largest economy. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback's value against six major currencies, was up 0.2% on the day at 102.61. Against the yen, the greenback rose 0.2% to 136.315 yen. Democratic President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy's U.S. debt ceiling negotiations ended on Tuesday after less than an hour, as the looming fear of an unprecedented American debt default prompted Biden to cut short an upcoming Asia trip.


Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC

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