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Daily Market Insight: 16 May 2023

16 พ.ค. 2566
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 33.74-33.93 this morning supportive level at 33.75 resistance level at 34.00

·         SET Index: 1,541.4 (-1.29%), 15 May 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,136.3 (+0.30%), 15 May 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.52 (+1.84 bps), 15 May 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.50 (+4.00 bps), 15 May 2023


  • Foreign buying of US Treasuries in March hits largest since June 2021
  • Euro zone industry output falls sharply, with Ireland plunge
  • Thailand's growth beats forecast; investors brace for uncertainty after elections
  • US dollar retreats from five-week high as debt ceiling stalemate weighs


Foreign buying of US Treasuries in March hits largest since June 2021 Foreign buying of U.S. Treasuries in March rose to its highest level in more than two years, data from the Treasury Department showed, as investors snapped safe-haven government debt in the wake of banking stress during the month. Holdings of U.S. Treasuries rose to $7.573 trillion in March, up roughly $230 billion from $7.343 trillion in the previous month. The monthly accumulation of Treasuries in March was the biggest since June 2021. U.S. regional banks remain at the center of the financial turmoil with the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March that saw deposits flee these institutions to more stable and larger money center banks. First Republic Bank eventually failed as well and was bought by JP Morgan Chase earlier this month. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield started March at 3.996%, falling 50 basis points to 3.49% by the end of the month. U.S. 10-year yields hit a 15-month high of 4.338% in October last year.


Euro zone industry output falls sharply, with Ireland plunge Euro zone industrial production fell by far more than expected in March as output of capital goods plunged, although the sharp reduction appeared to be a result of figures from Ireland, which are typically volatile. The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said on Monday that industrial production in the 20 countries sharing the euro fell by 4.1% month-on-month in March for a 1.4% year-on-year decline. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 2.5% monthly decrease and a 0.9% year-on-year gain. Industrial production in Ireland fell 26.3% in the month and by 26.1% from a year earlier. Eurostat noted that Ireland’s Central Statistics Office was reviewing its methodology for calculating the seasonal adjustment for industrial output.


Thailand's growth beats forecast; investors brace for uncertainty after elections Thailand's economy expanded faster than expected in the first quarter due to a recovery in tourism, data showed on Monday, while investors braced for political uncertainty after the opposition secured a stunning election victory on Sunday. The tourism-reliant economy's recovery has lagged its regional peers due to COVID-19 but gathered steam in recent months as Chinese visitors returned. The revival of the sector, which accounts for 11-12% of its gross domestic product (GDP), is expected to help offset the impact from declining exports. Thailand's state planning agency reiterated its outlook for a 2.7%-3.7% GDP growth in 2023, versus 2.6% last year, saying the post-election atmosphere should be kept positive to build investor confidence.


US dollar retreats from five-week high as debt ceiling stalemate weighs The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.52, +1.84 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.50, +1.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.20-2.70 Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.50, +4.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.79 Moving in a range of 33.74-33.93 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.50-34.00 today. The dollar fell from a five-week high on Monday, as investors consolidated gains made last week on the greenback and awaited news from Washington on how to address the debt ceiling issue, which could force the U.S. government to default on its debt if not resolved. In emerging markets, the Turkish lira sank to a near record low as weekend elections looked headed for a runoff, while the Thai baht rallied after a more decisive election result. The greenback took an early dive after data showed the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing index plunged to
-31.8 this month from a reading of 10.8 in April.


Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC

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