- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.15-34.35 this morning
· SET Index: 1,610.5 (+0.22%), 29 March 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,027.8 (+1.41%), 29 March 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.35 (+1.82 bps), 29 March 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.57 (+2.00 bps), 29 March 2023
- U.S. retail sales to grow at slower pace in 2023
- China’s factory activity likely expanded at a slower pace in March
- Thai Feb factory output down 2.71% y/y, slightly better than forecast
- Dollar rebounds as banking fears fade; yen falls on quarter-end flows
U.S. retail sales to grow at slower pace in 2023 Retail sales in the United States are expected to grow at a slower pace this year, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said on Wednesday, as fears of a recession and tremors in the banking industry cast a shadow over a recovery in consumer spending. The trade body said it expects retail sales to rise between 4% and 6% to up to $5.23 trillion, in comparison to 7% growth in 2022 to $4.9 trillion. The forecast comes even as NRF noted consumer spending held up fairly well in the first quarter of the year, thanks to a strong labor market, wage growth and savings built over the pandemic. Last year, the retail industry took a beating due to stubbornly high inflation and dwindling discretionary budgets at American households that left companies ranging from Walmart Inc to Macy's Inc with excess inventories. While inflation is showing signs of cooling, NRF projected it will remain between 3% and 3.5% for all goods and services for the year.
China’s factory activity likely expanded at a slower pace in March China’s factory activity likely grew at a slower pace in March, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, suggesting the economic recovery is uneven in the light of weak global demand and a property slump. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) is expected to have slowed to 51.5 in March, compared with 52.6 in February – the fastest pace in more than a decade – according to the median forecast of economists in a Reuters poll. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity on a monthly basis and a reading below indicates contraction. The world’s second-biggest economy has seen a gradual recovery in the first two months of 2023. Industrial output was 2.4% higher than a year earlier and retail sales jumped 3.5% on year, official data showed.
Thai Feb factory output down 2.71% y/y, slightly better than forecast Thailand's manufacturing production index (MPI) in February dropped by 2.71% from a year earlier, as slowing global demand hurt exports, the industry ministry said on Wednesday. The figure compared with a forecast for a fall of 2.8% in factory output for February in a Reuters poll and came after January's revised 4.81% year-on-year decrease. Output March is expected to be steady or down slightly due to a global slowdown, the ministry said in a statement. However, domestic demand improved on the back of a rebound in the vital tourism sector, which would underpin manufacturing production, the ministry said. Industrial goods account for about 80% of total exports, which in January contracted 4.5% from a year earlier, commerce ministry data showed. The commerce ministry is due to release February trade data on Thursday.
Dollar rebounds as banking fears
fade; yen falls on quarter-end flows The 10-year government bond
yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.35, +1.82 bps. The
benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.35, +1.00 bps. LB31DA could be
between 2.00-2.50 Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.57,
+2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.30 Moving in a
range of 34.15-34.35 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.00-34.50
today. The dollar rose against most major peers on Wednesday, reversing some of
its recent declines, and gained sharply against the yen, which was volatile as
the end of the Japanese fiscal year approaches. The dollar index, which
measures the currency against six rivals, was 0.18% higher on the day at
102.67, pulling away from the near seven-week low of 101.91 touched late last
week. Global financial markets were roiled in recent weeks as investors balked
at the collapse of two U.S. lenders and the rescue of Credit Suisse, with the
dollar coming under pressure as worries grew that the market turmoil may leave
the Federal Reserve unable to persist with
its inflation-fighting interest rate hikes.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
