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Daily Market Insight: 7 March 2023

7 มี.ค. 2566
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 34.50-34.62 this morning, supportive level at 34.40 resistance level at 34.65

·         SET Index: 1,606.9 (-0.36%), 3 March 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,048.4 (-0.07%), 3 March 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.59 (-1.88 bps), 3 March 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.98 (+1.00 bps), 6 March 2023


  • US services sector grows steadily; prices stubbornly high
  • Japan’s January real wages drop at fastest pace since 2014
  • South Korea revised Q4 GDP -0.4% q/q, matching earlier estimate
  • Oil prices advance ahead of Chinese trade data, Powell testimony


US services sector grows steadily; prices stubbornly high The U.S. services sector grew at a steady clip in February, with new orders and employment rising to more than one-year highs, suggesting the economy continued to expand in the first quarter. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey on Friday described companies as "mostly positive about business conditions." Though a measure of prices paid by businesses fell to the lowest level in just over two years, it stayed elevated, indicating that high inflation could persist. The survey added to robust consumer spending and labor market data in suggesting the economy was not near a recession. But the economy's resilience could see the Federal Reserve keep hiking interest rates into the summer. The ISM's non-manufacturing PMI dipped to 55.1 from a reading of 55.2 in January. The PMI is well above the 49.9 level, which the ISM says over time indicates growth in the overall economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the non-manufacturing PMI would decrease to 54.5.


Japan’s January real wages drop at fastest pace since 2014 Japan’s real wages saw their biggest fall in nearly nine years in January due to four-decade-high inflation, labour ministry data showed on Tuesday, squeezing the buying power of consumers. Wage trends in the world’s third-largest economy are under close market scrutiny because Bank of Japan officials have said that pay hikes, combined with 2% inflation, are essential to it scaling back ultra-loose monetary policy. The fall in real wages comes despite major Japanese firms including Toyota, Nintendo and Fast Retailing paying heed to policymakers’ calls and union demands by announcing plans for historic pay rises. Inflation-adjusted real wages, a barometer of households’ purchasing power, fell by 4.1% in January from a year earlier, the largest decrease since May 2014. It followed a revised 0.6% drop in December.


South Korea revised Q4 GDP -0.4% q/q, matching earlier estimate South Korea's economy contracted 0.4% in the fourth quarter from a quarter earlier, revised central bank data showed on Tuesday, matching its advance estimate released in January. The contraction followed 0.3% growth in the third quarter and marked the first quarterly fall since the second quarter of 2020. By expenditure, private consumption fell 0.6%, but facilities and construction investments rose 2.7% and 0.8%, respectively. Exports dropped 4.6%, while imports declined 3.7%. The country's gross domestic product grew 1.3% in the October-December quarter from the same period a year before, revised down from 1.4% estimated earlier. The full 2022 GDP growth was unchanged at 2.6%.


Oil prices advance ahead of Chinese trade data, Powell testimony The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.59, -1.88 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.64, -3.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.50-3.00. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.98 +1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.76 Moving in a range of 34.50-34.62 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.50-35.00 today. Oil prices rose to multi-week highs on Tuesday as markets awaited Chinese trade data to gauge the strength of crude demand in the country, although anticipation of a testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept broader sentiment muted.  After Chinese business activity showed a stronger-than-expected rebound in February, markets are waiting to see if the country’s trading activity showed a similar bounce.  Particular focus will be on China’s imports, which could signal a recovery in oil demand after the country lifted most anti-COVID measures earlier this year.  Brent oil futures rose 0.3% to a five-week high of $86.53 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.3% to a three-week high of $80.75 a barrel. Both contracts closed higher in choppy trade on Monday.


Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC

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