- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.91-35.07 this morning, supportive level at 34.85 resistance level at 35.15
· SET Index: 1,634.0 (-1.12%), 24 Feb 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 3,970.0 (-1.06%), 24 Feb 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.55 (-2.08 bps), 24 Feb 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.95 (+7.0 bps), 22 Feb 2023
- U.S. PCE prices rose 0.6% in January, stoking fears of higher Fed rates for longer
- German economy shrinks 0.4% in fourth quarter, weak start to 2023 seen
- China’s Uneven Recovery Continues With Industrial Sector Lagging
- Yen faces more pain as incoming BoJ governor Ueda torpedoes hopes of policy pivot
U.S. PCE prices rose 0.6% in January, stoking fears of higher Fed rates for longer The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation flashed red again on Friday, adding to concerns that interest rates will have to rise some way yet in order to bring prices back under control. The price index for personal consumption expenditures rose 0.6% in January - both in core and headline terms - while December's data were also revised higher. Analysts had reckoned with a rise of only 0.4% in the core index, which is the one most cited by the Fed. That meant that the core rate of PCE inflation ticked up for the first time in four months, to 4.7% - still more than twice the Fed's 2% target. U.S. financial markets reacted negatively to the news, quickly repricing their expectations for official interest rates. The yield on the benchmark 2-Year Treasury note - a rough proxy for Fed expectations - was up 7 basis points at 4.77%, its highest since October. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of developed market currencies, jumped 0.5% to 105.04, a seven-week high. S&P 500 futures meanwhile fell over 1.3%.
German economy shrinks 0.4% in fourth quarter, weak start to 2023 seen The German economy contracted more strongly than expected in the final three months of 2022, as inflation and the energy crisis took their toll on household consumption and capital investment. The German economy shrank by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the previous three months, the statistics office said on Friday. Preliminary data from the office had pointed to a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction adjusted for price and calendar effects. In the third quarter of 2022, gross domestic product saw slight growth of 0.5% compared to the three months prior. The worse-than-expected final result for the fourth quarter increases fears of a winter recession. A recession is commonly defined as two successive quarters of contraction.
China’s Uneven Recovery Continues With Industrial Sector Lagging China’s economy rebounded in February after the long holiday, although early indicators point to an uneven recovery with strong consumption following the scrapping of Covid rules but lagging industrial activity. That’s according to Bloomberg’s aggregate index of eight early indicators, which showed growth momentum this month maintained the pace seen in January, with the overall gauge staying unchanged at 4. The economy slowed at the end of 2022 as the Covid spread around the country, before beginning to pick up last month. Private activity looked to be strengthening in February as many residents returned to work after an extended Lunar New Year break, clogging roads in major cities and spending more at restaurants and shops.
Yen faces more pain as incoming BoJ governor Ueda torpedoes hopes of policy pivot The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.55, -2.08 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.58, -2.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.95, +7.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.79 Moving in a range of 34.91-35.07 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.50-35.00 today. The yen suffered a rout against the dollar Friday and now is likely staring down the barrel of more pain after Bank of Japan Governor-in-waiting Kazuo Ueda torpedoed bets for a policy pivot under his regime and backed the central bank's current dovish monetary policy measures amid expectations that four-decade high inflation isn’t likely to stick around for very long. At his confirmation hearing on Friday, Kazuo Ueda signaled that he was in no rush to abandon the BoJ’s yield curve control -- designed to keep Japanese government bond yields capped at a defined target level -- and added that it was appropriate to stick with BoJ’s dovish monetary policy measures.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
