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Daily Market Insight: 24 January 2023

24 ม.ค. 2566
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 32.72-32.77 this morning, supportive level at 32.60 resistance level at 32.80

·         SET Index: 1,684.0 (+0.40%), 23 Jan 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,019.8 (+1.18%), 23 Jan 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.46 (+1.74 bps), 23 Jan 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.52 (+4.00 bps), 23 Jan 2023

 

  • U.S. leading indicators index falls for 10th straight month
  • Japan’s factory activity extends declines for third straight month
  • UK consumer mood slides back to near 50-year low
  • Dollar edges lower vs euro on ECB rate hike bets

 

U.S. leading indicators index falls for 10th straight month A gauge of future U.S. economic activity tumbled for a 10th straight month in December with a widespread weakening outlook for manufacturing, home building and both job and financial markets. The Conference Board on Monday said its Leading Economic Index slid 1.0% in December following a downwardly revised decline of 1.1% in November. The decline exceeded all 22 forecasts in a poll of economists by Reuters, which had a median expectation of a decline of 0.7% "The U.S. LEI fell sharply again in December - continuing to signal recession for the U.S. economy in the near term," Ataman Ozyildirim, the Conference Board's senior director for economics, said in a statement.

 

Japan’s factory activity extends declines for third straight month Japan’s manufacturing activity contracted for a third straight month in January as export weakness persisted amid a worsening global outlook, a corporate survey showed on Tuesday. The au Jibun Bank flash Japan manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was at a seasonally adjusted 48.9 in January, unchanged from the final reading in the previous month. The soft factory activity clouds policymakers’ hopes that key wage talks in the months ahead will offset the squeeze to consumers from 41-year-high inflation and help sustain the fragile post-pandemic recovery. The index stayed below the 50-line that separates contraction from expansion for a third straight month, after December’s final figure marked the fastest fall in 26 months.

 

UK consumer mood slides back to near 50-year low British consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months in January, returning near to historic lows as concerns about the economy and the soaring cost of living tightened the squeeze on household finances, research showed on Friday. Market research firm GfK said its measure of confidence declined 3 points to -45, the third-lowest reading since records started in 1974. A Reuters poll of economists forecast a rise to -40 from December's -42. The GfK index, which is not seasonally adjusted, usually rises in January. Sentiment towards major purchases declined especially sharply this month. The survey results highlight the impact that rising prices and economic uncertainty is having on UK households, with more consumers reporting a deterioration in their personal finances. Energy bills and food prices in have escalated rapidly in recent months, eating away at households' disposable incomes.

 

Dollar edges lower vs euro on ECB rate hike bets The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.46, +1.74 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.47, +2.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.52, +4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.69 Moving in a range of 32.72-32.77 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.60-33.90 today. The dollar slipped against the euro on Monday, at one point hitting a fresh 9-month low, as the common currency found support from European Central Bank officials' comments signaling additional jumbo interest rate rises in Europe. The euro reached as high as $1.0927, to trade at its highest level since April last year, before paring gains to trade up 0.05% at $1.08605. The euro's early gains were aided by comments from European Central Bank (ECB) governing council members Klaas Knot and Peter Kazimir, who both advocated for two more 50 basis point hikes at meetings in February and March. The ECB will keep raising interest rates quickly to slow inflation which remains far too high, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday, largely repeating the bank's most recent policy guidance. A Reuters survey of analysts also favored hikes of 50 basis points at the next two meetings and an eventual rate peak of 3.25%, from the current rate of 2%.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC