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Daily Market Insight: 28 September 2022

28 ก.ย. 2565
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 37.97-38.07 this morning, supportive level at 37.90 resistance level at 38.20

·         SET Index: 1,610.6 (-0.66%), 27 Sep 2022

·         S&P 500 Index: 3,647.3 (-0.21%), 27 Sep 2022

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.21 (+4.19 bps), 27 Sep 2022

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.97 (+9.00 bps), 27 Sep 2022


  • Fed's Evans sees interest rates peaking at 4.50-4.75%
  • Japan Business Activity Grows Slightly in Sept, Outlook Dim – PMI
  • World Bank forecasts Thai GDP growth at 3.1% this year
  • UK 30-year yields hit highest since 2002, extending post-tax cuts surge


Fed's Evans sees interest rates peaking at 4.50-4.75% The US Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates to a range between 4.50% and 4.75%, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said, a more aggressive stance than he has previously embraced that underscores the central bank's hardening resolve to quash excessively high inflation. Evans also said that he does not see "recession-like" unemployment rate numbers ahead, even as the Fed's actions result in below-trend economic growth and a softening in the labor market to bring inflation back down to the central bank's 2% goal. These showed the Fed expects to raise the policy rate, now in the 3%-3.25% range after last week's 75-basis-point increase, to 4.4% by the end of this year and to 4.6% by the end of next year, according to the median estimate of all 19 Fed policymakers.


Japan Business Activity Grows Slightly in Sept, Outlook Dim – PMI Japanese business activity expanded slightly in September, preliminary data showed on Monday, although high inflation and a weakening yen continued to paint a bleak picture for the remainder of the year. The Japanese composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) read 50.9 in September, data from au Jibun Bank and S&P Global showed. The reading indicated an expansion in activity after August’s reading of 49.4. Japan’s service sector accounted for most of the growth, with services PMI reading 51.9, up from August’s 49.5. A recovery in the service sector was driven largely by the easing of COVID-19 curbs in parts of the country, with sectors such as transport, real estate, and financial services benefiting from the relaxed curbs.


World Bank forecasts Thai GDP growth at 3.1% this year Thailand's economy is expected to grow 3.1% this year, higher than a forecast in June of 2.9%, supported by private consumption and exports, the World Bank said. However, the bank cut Thailand's growth forecast in 2023 to 4.1%, from a previous outlook of 4.3%. While an expected global economic slowdown next year will depress demand for exports, the easing of the COVID-19 pandemic would support a tourism recovery, the bank said in a report. The Southeast Asian country expects eight million to 10 million foreign tourist arrivals this year, having received five million so far.


UK 30-year yields hit highest since 2002, extending post-tax cuts surge The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.21, +4.19 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.18, +0.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 3.20-3.45. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.97, +9.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 37.92 Moving in a range of 37.97-38.07 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 38.05-38.15 today. Yields on British government debt surged to new multi-year highs on Tuesday, led by 20 and 30-year bonds, adding to their steep climb since finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng announced sweeping tax cuts last week. Yields on 20-year gilts were up by 35 basis points while the 10-year gilt extended its climb and remained on course for its biggest rise in any month since at least 1957.


Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC