- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.32 – 33.38 this morning, supportive level at 33.20 resistance level at 33.45
- SET Index: 1,623.64 (+1.60%), 31 July 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,489.72 (+0.70%), 31 July 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.083 (-1.01 bps), 31 July 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.75 (+7.00 bps), 31 July 2026
- Middle east shows tentative de-escalation
- Fed dissenters defend rate hike as inflation risks persist
- Eurozone inflation strengthens as US-Iran strikes boost oil
- BOJ keeps rates steady, signals further rate hikes
- China PMIs signal broad economic slowdown
- Dollar remains under pressure amid yen rally and intervention speculation
Middle east shows tentative de-escalation
Crude prices rose on Friday as escalating Middle East tensions lifted geopolitical risk. Nonetheless, over the weekend, middle east tensions showed tentative signs of de-escalation as President Trump said the US had cancelled a planned attack on Iran following progress toward a potential deal, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, although Iran denied the claim and reaffirmed its readiness to respond to any aggression. Reports also suggested the US had prepared military options if diplomacy failed, while Iran said talks with Oman on Hormuz shipping were nearing completion.
Fed dissenters defend rate hike as inflation risks persist
Fed officials Hammack, Logan and Kashkari defended their votes for a 25bp rate hike this week, arguing that persistent inflation, a still-resilient labour market and insufficiently restrictive policy warranted a pre-emptive move to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched. In a separate report, the University of Michigan’s June survey showed consumer sentiment improved.
Eurozone inflation strengthens as US-Iran strikes boost oil
Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9% YoY in July, in line with expectations, as higher oil prices lifted energy inflation. Core inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.5% YoY, reflecting firmer underlying price pressures. At the country level, inflation surprised to the upside in France and Spain, while Germany accelerated to a three-month high and Italy was broadly in line with expectations.
BOJ keeps rates steady, signals further rate hikes
The BoJ kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.00%, as expected, in an 8–1 vote, with Takata dissenting in favour of a 25bp hike. The updated Outlook Report included modest GDP upgrades and mixed inflation revisions, while Governor Ueda highlighted rising upside inflation risks and reiterated that the BoJ could accelerate rate hikes if financial conditions remain overly accommodative.
China PMIs signal broad economic slowdown
China’s official manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell into contraction at 49.2 in July, while the non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0, pulling the composite PMI down to 49.3 and signalling a broad loss of economic momentum.
Dollar remains under pressure amid yen rally and intervention speculation
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.083, -1.01 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.05, -1.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.75, +7.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.42, moving in a range of 33.32 – 33.38 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.20 – 33.45 today. The US dollar was mixed against G10 peers on Friday, weighed down by a sharp rally in the Japanese yen amid growing speculation of official intervention after reports the US treasury had asked banks to prepare JPY-buying trades. The Japanese yen outperformed on Friday, with USD/JPY swinging between 158.15 and 160.88 amid renewed intervention speculation. Elsewhere, G10 FX moves were subdued, with the British pound posting modest gains, the euro trading flat.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
