- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.485 – 33.50 this morning, supportive level at 33.40 resistance level at 33.60
- SET Index: 1,624.47 (-1.21%), 27 July 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,316.15 (-1.52%), 29 July 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.075 (-4.34 bps), 27 July 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.67 (+6.00 bps), 29 July 2026
- Fed holds rates, but hawkish dissents keep tightening risk alive
- Middle east tensions escalate, lifting oil prices
- South Korea pledges market stabilisation following Kospi selloff
- Thailand’s industrial production remains under pressure
- Dollar slides as FOMC falls short of hawkish expectations
Fed holds rates, but hawkish dissents keep tightening risk alive
The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, as expected, although the decision saw three dissents, with Logan, Hammack and Kashkari favouring a 25bps hike. The policy statement was largely unchanged, reaffirming that the economy is expanding at a solid pace, supported by strong productivity, capital investment and a resilient labour market, while reiterating the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone, arguing that years of above-target inflation cannot be reversed by a single month of softer data, highlighting the economy’s resilience and higher nominal and real Treasury yields, while stressing that the Fed stands ready to tighten policy further if necessary.
Middle east tensions escalate, lifting oil prices
Geopolitical tensions escalated after Iran launched missiles at a US base in Jordan, although all were intercepted. The US and Saudi Arabia later struck Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, while Saudi air defences intercepted drones targeting energy infrastructure. Iran’s IRGC also claimed it had struck US assets and seized three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, warning of further retaliation. Later, President Trump warned the US would “hit Iran hard” in response to the attacks, while reports said discussions with Israeli PM Netanyahu focused on options including a nuclear deal, tougher sanctions or renewed military action, keeping concerns over potential oil supply disruptions elevated.
South Korea pledges market stabilisation following Kospi selloff
South Korea pledged additional measures to stabilise financial markets and curb retail participation in leveraged ETFs following the Kospi’s 16% two-day plunge. Authorities also committed to establishing a legal framework for emergency market interventions and enhancing round-the-clock market monitoring, although they provided few details on potential investment limits or higher trading costs.
Thailand’s industrial production remains under pressure
Thailand’s manufacturing production index (MPI) fell 3.1% Y/Y in June, with capacity utilisation declining to 57.6%. The weakness was driven mainly by lower automobile and refinery output, reflecting soft domestic auto demand, tight credit conditions, and refinery production cuts following earlier stockpiling. The OIE also warned that ongoing Middle East tensions could further weigh on the sector through higher energy prices and logistics costs.
Dollar slides as FOMC falls short of hawkish expectations
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.075, -4.34 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.03, -7.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.67, +6.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.55, moving in a range of 33.485 – 33.50 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.40 – 33.60 today. The dollar weakened after the FOMC disappointed hawkish expectations. Although three officials dissented in favour of a 25bps hike, markets unwound hawkish bets as the Fed held rates and offered no new guidance. The euro rebounded above 1.1400 as the dollar weakened following the FOMC meeting. The British pound recovered to the 1.3300 area ahead of the BoE policy decision, while the Japanese yen ended stronger after a choppy session as markets unwound Fed rate hike expectations, weighing on the dollar.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
