- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.58 – 33.616 this morning, supportive level at 33.50 resistance level at 33.70
- SET Index: 1,635.29 (+0.31%), 16 July 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,533.77 (-0.51%), 16 July 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.014 (-2.82 bps), 16 July 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.57 (+2.00 bps), 16 July 2026
- US retail sales signal resilient consumer spending in June
- Middle east geopolitical risks remain elevated
- Fed’s Logan, Schmid stress inflation risks
- BoK raises rates to 2.75%, signals stronger growth outlook
- Dollar strengthens on solid US data and higher yields
US retail sales signal resilient consumer spending in June
US retail sales rose 0.2% M/M in June, in line with expectations, while sales excluding autos fell 0.2% M/M, slightly weaker than forecast. However, the underlying details remained encouraging, as retail sales excluding autos and gasoline increased 0.4% M/M and the closely watched control group rose 0.5% M/M, both meeting expectations. Strength was led by motor vehicle & parts dealers and non-store retailers, while lower gasoline prices weighed on service station sales. In a separate report, initial and continuing jobless claims fell below expectations, signalling continued labour market resilience, while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surged well above forecasts, pointing to stronger factory activity.
Middle east geopolitical risks remain elevated
Geopolitical tensions remained elevated as the US launched another round of strikes on Iranian military targets, with Iran retaliating through attacks on Kuwait and Jordan. President Trump signalled military operations could expand next week, while reports suggested the US is considering broader action against Iran. The Iran-backed Houthis also threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US targeted Iran’s power network. However, some escalation concerns eased after Dubai denied reports of explosions in the city and Qatar rejected claims it would participate in military action against Iran, although US CENTCOM later confirmed additional strikes on Iran.
Fed’s Logan, Schmid stress inflation risks
Dallas Fed President Logan became the first Fed official to explicitly call for “modestly higher” interest rates, arguing that one month of softer CPI is insufficient and inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. Separately, Kansas City Fed President Schmid reiterated that inflation remains persistent and stressed the need to stay focused on restoring price stability.
BoK raises rates to 2.75%, signals stronger growth outlook
The Bank of Korea raised its 7-day Repo Rate by 25bps to 2.75%, as expected, in a unanimous decision. The BoK signalled stronger economic momentum, with 2026 growth expected to exceed its May forecast, while core inflation is also likely to come in above previous projections. Governor Shin reiterated that future policy will remain data dependent, adding that resilient domestic demand could sustain inflationary pressures and reinforcing the BoK’s commitment to keeping policy restrictive until inflation is firmly anchored at target.
Dollar strengthens on solid US data and higher yields
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.014, -2.82 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 1.99, -2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.57, +2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.57, moving in a range of 33.58 – 33.616 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.50 – 33.70 today. The US dollar strengthened alongside higher Treasury yields after resilient US economic data reinforced expectations of a restrictive Fed. Initial and continuing jobless claims fell more than expected, while June retail sales pointed to solid underlying consumer spending. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remained elevated as fresh threats emerged over a potential closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the US launched additional strikes on Iranian infrastructure. The euro edged lower amid a lack of fresh catalysts. Meanwhile the Japanese yen softened as higher US Treasury yields widened rate differentials.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
