- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.345 – 33.40 this morning, supportive level at 33.25 resistance level at 33.45
- SET Index: 1,608.30 (+2.03%), 9 July 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,543.64 (+0.81%), 9 July 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.992 (+0.61 bps), 9 July 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.54 (-2.00 bps), 9 July 2026
- Oil declines despite fresh US-Iran attacks as markets price in de-escalation
- IMF cuts 2026 Global growth forecast to 3.0% as middle east conflict weighs on outlook
- ECB sees inflation staying above target for longer
- China’s reflation momentum shows signs of peaking
- Dollar weakens as geopolitical developments drive market sentiment
Oil declines despite fresh US-Iran attacks as markets price in de-escalation
Geopolitical tensions remained elevated after the US struck around 90 Iranian military targets overnight, prompting the IRGC to claim retaliatory attacks on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Military exchanges continued throughout the day, but market sentiment improved after President Trump said Iran had reached out seeking a deal, easing fears of broader escalation. Oil prices fell as the IRGC’s latest warning targeted US military bases rather than energy infrastructure, reducing immediate supply concerns, though crude pared losses late in the session following reports of fresh US strikes and explosions in southern Iran.
IMF cuts 2026 Global growth forecast to 3.0% as middle east conflict weighs on outlook
According to the IMF’s July 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) update, global growth is projected to slow to 3.0% in 2026 (down from 3.1% in April) before recovering to 3.4% in 2027. The IMF noted that while the AI-driven technology cycle continues to support activity, its positive impact is being partly offset by the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict. Elevated energy prices are expected to keep global inflation at 4.7% in 2026, limiting the scope for monetary easing.
ECB sees inflation staying above target for longer
According to ECB Minutes, officials noted that inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target through the first half of next year, with core inflation projected to stay above target throughout the forecast horizon despite tighter monetary policy. Policymakers also unanimously assessed that risks to the inflation outlook remain tilted to the upside relative to the staff’s baseline projections.
China’s reflation momentum shows signs of peaking
China’s inflation data pointed to moderating reflation momentum, with CPI rising 1.0% YoY in June, below expectations and slowing from May, while PPI accelerated to 4.1% YoY, its fastest pace since July 2022. However, the increase was largely driven by base effects, as producer prices fell 0.3% MoM, suggesting factory-gate inflation has likely peaked following the Middle East-driven commodity price surge.
Dollar weakens as geopolitical developments drive market sentiment
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.992, +0.61 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 1.96, -2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.54, -2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.47, moving in a range of 33.345 – 33.40 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.25 – 33.45 today. The US dollar weakened against most G10 peers as broader macro sentiment and geopolitical developments drove FX markets. Markets largely looked through Fed’s Williams’ comments and broadly unchanged initial jobless claims. The euro outperformed after President Trump said Iran had reached out seeking a deal, lifting risk sentiment, with gains reinforced by stronger-than-expected German trade data, while the ECB minutes had little market impact. The British pound also strengthened, supported by the improved risk backdrop and comments from BoE Chief Economist Pill that interest rates may need to rise this year to keep inflation under control. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen posted modest gains broadly in line with its major peers.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
