- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.36 – 33.41 this morning, supportive level at 33.30 resistance level at 33.50
- SET Index: 1,604.13 (-0.79%), 7 July 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,503.85 (-0.45%), 7 July 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.967 (-0.11 bps), 7 July 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.55 (+7.00 bps), 7 July 2026
- Geopolitical tensions back in the spotlight
- Inflation expectations rise while Fed maintains flexible policy stance
- Political events add to European market uncertainty
- S&P Dow Jones flags Indonesia for potential frontier market downgrade
- Dollar strengthens on rising geopolitical tensions and higher treasury yields
Geopolitical tensions back in the spotlight
Oil prices climbed as geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated following multiple reported attacks on commercial vessels. Iran’s IRGC was reported to have fired missiles at two ships, including a Qatari oil tanker, while UKMTO later received reports of two additional incidents. Saudi Arabia subsequently confirmed that one of the targeted vessels was a Saudi tanker and blamed Iran for the attacks. The escalation prompted fresh US military strikes and the revocation of Iran’s oil waiver, heightening concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies and further undermining the fragile ceasefire.
Inflation expectations rise while Fed maintains flexible policy stance
The New York Fed’s survey of consumer expectations indicated a further increase in one- and three-year inflation expectations to 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively, while five-year expectations remained anchored at 3.0%. Separately, New York Fed President Williams noted that lower energy prices have improved the near-term inflation outlook, although inflation remains elevated. He reiterated that monetary policy is well positioned and stressed that future policy decisions will remain data-dependent, adding that forward guidance is inappropriate given the current level of uncertainty.
Political events add to European market uncertainty
Political developments weighed on sentiment in Europe; with Marine Le Pen convicted of embezzlement in France while reaffirming her 2027 presidential ambitions. In the UK, Nigel Farage announced plans to resign as an MP to trigger a by-election ahead of his campaign for the Clacton-on-Sea seat.
S&P Dow Jones flags Indonesia for potential frontier market downgrade
S&P Dow Jones Indices placed Indonesia on watch for a potential downgrade to frontier market status, warning that special measures for Indonesian securities may be introduced if market conditions worsen. While a downgrade is not imminent, the index provider said it could make a decision at its 2027 annual review if the issues remain unresolved.
Dollar strengthens on rising geopolitical tensions and higher treasury yields
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.967, -0.11 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 1.95, +1.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.55, +7.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.24, moving in a range of 33.36 – 33.41 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.30 – 33.50 today. The US dollar strengthened broadly against its G10 peers on Tuesday, with gains accelerating late in the US session after Washington adopted a tougher stance on Iran by revoking Iran’s General License X and warning Tehran of consequences over its actions in the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical escalation, alongside higher US Treasury yields and oil prices, supported the Greenback. Meanwhile, EUR and GBP ended modestly lower amid political developments in France and the UK, while JPY initially outperformed after Japan’s Economy Minister Kiuchi dismissed speculation of government pressure on the BoJ to cut rates. However, the yen later reversed its gains, with USD/JPY climbing back above the 162.00 level by the close.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
