- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.315 – 33.35 this morning, supportive level at 33.24 resistance level at 33.44
- SET Index: 1,588.23 (-0.19%), 1 July 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,483.23 (-0.22%), 1 July 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.061 (+0.34 bps), 1 July 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.48 (+4.00 bps), 1 July 2026
- Warsh offers no new hawkish signals
- US data signals slower but resilient economy
- Eurozone inflation slows more than expected as oil retreats
- China private manufacturing PMI grows slightly below expectations in June
- Dollar holds firm ahead of US payrolls, though gains fade after Warsh
Warsh offers no new hawkish signals
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated his preference for a more flexible policy framework, declining to provide forward guidance on interest rates while signalling that future FOMC meetings would encourage more open policy debate. He also reaffirmed the Fed’s ongoing review of its communication strategy and policy framework, noting that inflation risks have eased as oil prices retreated following the interim US-Iran peace agreement, helping to reduce energy-driven price pressures.
US data signals slower but resilient economy
US data presented a mixed but resilient picture. Manufacturing activity softened as the ISM PMI missed expectations, reflecting slower growth after earlier front-loaded demand faded. However, lower supplier delivery times and a sharp decline in the prices-paid index pointed to improving supply conditions and easing inflation pressures. Meanwhile, ADP employment missed forecasts, signalling a gradual cooling in hiring, while Challenger layoffs fell to their lowest level since December 2025, highlighting an overall resilient labour market despite ongoing AI-driven job cuts in the technology sector.
Eurozone inflation slows more than expected as oil retreats
Euro area inflation slowed more than expected in June, as lower energy prices following easing Middle East tensions helped reduce price pressures. Headline inflation eased to 2.8% YoY from 3.2% in May, below market expectations, while core inflation also moderated more than anticipated. Meanwhile, services inflation declined to 3.2%, reinforcing signs that inflationary pressures are continuing to ease.
China private manufacturing PMI grows slightly below expectations in June
China’s private manufacturing activity eased slightly in June, with the RatingDog Manufacturing PMI slipping to 51.7 from 51.8, marginally below expectations but remaining firmly in expansion territory. Export demand continued to support activity, while new orders extended their growth streak to 13 consecutive months. Meanwhile, easing input-cost inflation helped relieve pressure on manufacturers’ margins. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity across most Asian economies remained resilient in June, supported by robust global demand for AI-related semiconductors despite higher material costs and shipping disruptions linked to Middle East tensions.
Dollar holds firm ahead of US payrolls, though gains fade after Warsh
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.061, +0.34 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.03, -2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.48, +4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.34, moving in a range of 33.315 – 33.35 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.24 – 33.44 today. The dollar remained supported ahead of Thursday’s US payrolls report as mixed labour market data reinforced expectations of a resilient economy. However, gains faded after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a less hawkish tone than markets had anticipated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking. Meanwhile, the euro weakened after softer-than-expected euro area inflation and broadly dovish ECB commentary, while the British pound edged higher after Andrew Bailey cited a slowing economy as a reason not to raise rates. The Japanese yen traded sideways, with USD/JPY remaining near the 162 level.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
