- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.395 – 33.41 this morning, supportive level at 33.30 resistance level at 33.50
- SET Index: 1,558.55 (+0.67%), 25 June 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,357.49 (-0.01%), 25 June 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.047 (-3.61 bps), 25 June 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.40 (-1.00 bps), 25 June 2026
- Oil rebounds as middle east risks remain elevated
- US data reinforces resilient growth, sticky inflation
- Tokyo inflation picks up as energy costs feed through
- Thailand’s export growth remains robust despite wider trade deficit
- Dollar slips after softer PCE, though inflation remains sticky
Oil rebounds as middle east risks remain elevated
Oil prices rebounded despite limited fresh catalysts, as markets remained focused on Middle East tensions. Reports of an Iranian attack on a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled Israel–Lebanon ceasefire talks kept geopolitical risk elevated, raising concerns over potential disruptions to regional shipping and oil flows. Meanwhile, supply updates were mixed, with Saudi Arabia preparing to resume exports from the Ras Tanura terminal, while refinery disruptions in Venezuela and Russia offered modest support to crude prices.
US data reinforces resilient growth, sticky inflation
The latest US data reinforced a resilient economy with persistent inflation. May PCE showed softer monthly but firmer annual inflation, supporting the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance. Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%, largely on stronger net trade, though consumer spending was weaker than previously estimated. Meanwhile, jobless claims continued to signal a healthy but gradually cooling labor market, while a rebound in core capital goods orders pointed to resilient business investment despite geopolitical and energy headwinds.
Tokyo inflation picks up as energy costs feed through
Tokyo CPI accelerated in June, with core inflation rising to 1.6% Y/Y and the BOJ’s preferred core-core measure increasing to 1.9%, nearing the central bank’s 2% target. The data suggest higher energy costs are increasingly passing through to consumers despite government subsidies, reinforcing underlying inflationary pressures.
Thailand’s export growth remains robust despite wider trade deficit
Thailand’s exports grew 10.6% YoY in May, extending gains for a 23rd straight month, supported by front-loaded orders ahead of potential US tariffs and robust AI-driven technology demand. Imports, however, surged 35.1%, widening the monthly trade deficit to USD 5.7 billion. In the first five months of 2026, exports rose 17.0% while imports jumped 35.6%, resulting in a cumulative trade deficit of USD 25.2 billion. Despite ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties, the Ministry of Commerce expects export momentum to remain solid and sees 2026 exports tracking its bullish 8% growth scenario.
Dollar slips after softer PCE, though inflation remains sticky
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.047, -3.61 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.02, -4.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.40, -1.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.38, moving in a range of 33.395 – 33.41 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.30 – 33.50 today. The dollar eased slightly after softer-than-expected May headline PCE inflation (0.4% M/M vs. 0.5% expected) lifted treasuries and pressured yields. However, downside was limited as annual headline and core inflation came in above expectations, with Fed’s Goolsbee reiterating that core inflation, particularly services, remains too high. Elsewhere, US data remained broadly resilient, with Q1 GDP, personal income, and spending beating forecasts. Major currencies were mixed as broad USD weakness lifted the euro and pound, with EUR supported by hawkish ECB comments and GBP/USD reclaiming the 1.3200 level. Meanwhile, USD/JPY ended little changed after retreating from near 162.00 ahead of Tokyo CPI data.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
