- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.01 – 32.04 this morning, supportive level at 31.87 resistance level at 32.17
- SET Index: 1,481.85 (-0.04%), 20 Apr 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,109.14 (-0.24%), 20 Apr 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.145 (+11.59 bps), 20 Apr 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.26 (+0.00 bps), 20 Apr 2026
- US–Iran talks in focus as geopolitical tensions drive market volatility
- Fitch warns US credit risk outlook worsens on Middle East conflict
- ECB awaits more data before making policy decisions
- Thailand mulls higher public debt for $30 billion borrowing
- Dollar edges lower against major peers
US–Iran talks in focus as geopolitical tensions drive market volatility
Renewed geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment after Iran reclosed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil higher. Focus remains on US–Iran talks amid conflicting reports on timing and participation, with US media suggesting JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner could meet Iranian officials as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, while Iranian sources say no decision has been made. Nonetheless, Iran is also expected to send a delegation, though its leadership remains unclear. Meanwhile, Donald Trump signaled he is unlikely to extend the ceasefire or lift the blockade without a deal.
Fitch warns US credit risk outlook worsens on Middle East conflict
Fitch Ratings said the US credit outlook has worsened heading into Q2 2026, citing risks from the Iran conflict and software disruption, with potential spillovers into CLOs and business development companies, though buffers remain adequate and no timing was given for rating actions. It also cut the Philippines’ outlook to negative from stable while affirming its BBB rating, citing weaker public investment and energy pressures but noting resilient growth and gradual debt reduction. Meanwhile, Moody’s downgraded Belgium to A1 with a stable outlook, pointing to persistent fiscal deficit challenges.
ECB awaits more data before making policy decisions
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said more data is needed before drawing firm policy conclusions on the economic impact of the Iran conflict. Speaking in Berlin, she noted that while energy prices rose recently, there is no clear evidence yet of second-round inflation effects—seen as crucial for any decision to raise interest rates.
Thailand mulls higher public debt for $30 billion borrowing
Thailand is considering raising its voluntary public debt ceiling to 75% of GDP from 70%, potentially creating around 1 trillion baht in additional borrowing capacity to support the economy amid global energy shocks. The government has already rolled out relief measures including cash handouts and sector subsidies, as it seeks to cushion the impact of higher energy costs. In a separate report, Thailand will proceed with its “land bridge” project linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans—bypassing the Strait of Malacca—after Middle East tensions highlighted the importance of key shipping routes.
Dollar edges lower against major peers
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.145, +11.59 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.14, +14.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.26, +0.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.08, moving in a range of 32.01 – 32.04 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 31.87 – 32.17 today. The dollar edged lower against major peers despite mixed geopolitical news, with focus shifting to upcoming US–Iran talks in Islamabad ahead of the ceasefire deadline, where both sides are now expected to attend. US data and Fed commentary were absent due to the blackout period, though a Warsh hearing will highlight Fed independence. The euro inched higher on German PPI and ECB remarks, the British pound held above 1.3500 but faced political headwinds, while the Japanese yen weakened amid choppy trading as USD/JPY pulled back from 159.00.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
