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Daily Market Insight: 25 March 2026

25 มี.ค. 2569
  • USDTHB: moving in the range 32.44 – 32.48 this morning, supportive level at 32.15 resistance level at 32.55
  • SET Index: 1,410.39 (+0.93%), 24 Mar 2026
  • S&P 500 Index: 6,556.37 (-0.37%), 24 Mar 2026
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.235 (+0.01 bps), 24 Mar 2026
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 4.39 (+5.00 bps), 24 Mar 2026

 

  • US signals potential for diplomacy with Iran
  • Iran imposes Hormuz transit fees on select ships
  • US PMI sends mixed signals
  • Thai Feb exports miss forecast; imports surge on gold
  • Dollar overall eases on Iran truce proposal

 

US signals potential for diplomacy with Iran

Donald Trump said the US is making strong progress with Iran, citing active talks, willingness to strike a deal, and claims that Iran has agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons, while hinting at a broader regime shift and a significant concession tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Reports suggest possible high-level talks soon, alongside a proposed one-month ceasefire plan led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to negotiate a wider agreement. Separately, the US is preparing to deploy 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, though no final decision on ground operations has been made.

 

Iran imposes Hormuz transit fees on select ships

Iran has begun levying ad hoc transit fees—reportedly up to $2 million per voyage—on some ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, effectively creating an informal toll. The unclear payment mechanism and selective compliance highlight Iran’s control over the route, while adding tension to global shipping, with countries like India pushing back on legal grounds over freedom of navigation.

 

US PMI sends mixed signals

The composite PMI at 51.4, as weaker services growth weighed on the outlook. Meanwhile, input costs surged to the highest since May amid the US–Israel–Iran conflict, signaling renewed inflation pressures. Meanwhile, the composite PMI easing to 50.5 but remaining in expansion. Germany stayed above 50 despite a larger-than-expected drop, while France extended its contraction streak. Services lagged across the board, with manufacturing more resilient.

 

Thai Feb exports miss forecast; imports surge on gold

Thailand’s exports rose 9.9% y/y in February, led by electronics, but missed expectations. Imports surged 31.8%, driven by capital goods and gold, widening the trade deficit to $2.8 billion for a fifth straight month. In a separate report, Thailand will raise diesel prices to 33 baht/litre from 24 March, scaling back subsidies to ease pressure on the Oil Fuel Fund amid soaring global energy costs.

 

Dollar overall eases on Iran truce proposal

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.235, +0.01 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.24, -8.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.39, +5.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.62, moving in a range of 32.44 – 32.48 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.15 – 32.55 today. The dollar initially strengthened as US–Iran developments showed limited progress following Donald Trump’s announcement, with reports also indicating a planned deployment of 3,000 82nd Airborne Division troops to the Middle East to support Iran-related operations. However, the dollar later trimmed gains as oil prices fell and risk sentiment improved after news emerged that the US had proposed a 15-clause, one-month ceasefire plan to Iran. Meanwhile, the euro recovered most of its earlier losses and moved back above 1.1600, driven largely by geopolitical headlines and signals from ECB officials about rising prices and vigilance over second-round effects. The British pound fluctuated around the 1.3400 level, finding support as risk appetite improved alongside Trump’s comments on Iran negotiations, while the Japanese yen remained volatile, reacting to swings in oil prices and broader geopolitical developments.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC