- USDTHB: moving in the range 31.695 – 31.775 this morning, supportive level at 31.65 resistance level at 31.95
- SET Index: 1,417.29 (+2.36%), 5 Mar 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 6,830.71 (-0.56%), 5 Mar 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.863 (-1.92 bps), 5 Mar 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.13 (+4.0 bps), 5 Mar 2026
- Middle East conflict shows no sign of easing
- Initial jobless claims hold steady
- ECB minutes suggest rates may stay higher for longer
- China tells top refiners to halt diesel and gasoline exports
- Thailand inflation remains subdued despite expected oil-driven pickup
- Dollar gains on haven demand as yields rise with surging oil
Middle East conflict shows no sign of easing
The US-Israeli war on Iran entered its sixth day with no signs of easing, as Iran warned retaliation will intensify. The US has struck over 2,000 targets and claims it is moving toward control of Iranian airspace, while more than 1,100 people have died in Iran.
Initial jobless claims hold steady
US initial jobless claims held steady at 213k, slightly below forecasts, signalling a stable low-hire, low-fire labour market. Meanwhile, unit labour costs rose 2.8%, above expectations, but remain broadly consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
ECB minutes suggest rates may stay higher for longer
ECB Feb minutes showed mixed inflation risks, with policymakers expecting inflation to stabilise near the 2% target, supporting a patient stance and potentially prolonged steady rates.
China tells top refiners to halt diesel and gasoline exports
China has reportedly instructed its largest refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports amid escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf, halting new contracts and seeking cancellations of existing shipments, with limited exceptions for Hong Kong and Macau, as authorities prioritise domestic supply.
Thailand inflation remains subdued despite expected oil-driven pickup
Thailand’s CPI fell 0.88% YoY in February, marking the 11th consecutive month of deflation, while declining 0.24% MoM, both below expectations. Core inflation rose 0.56%, in line with forecasts. The prolonged negative headline inflation could help cushion any potential energy-driven price pressures, although inflation is expected to pick up in March amid higher oil prices, with the increase likely to remain manageable.
Dollar gains on haven demand as yields rise with surging oil
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.863, -1.92 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 1.86, -5.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.13, +4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 31.61, moving in a range of 31.695 – 31.775 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 31.65 – 31.95 today. The dollar strengthened as safe-haven demand returned and Treasury yields rose alongside the continued surge in oil prices, supported by mostly better-than-expected data, while markets now look ahead to the upcoming BLS jobs report. Meanwhile, the euro remained subdued amid geopolitical and energy concerns and showed little reaction to ECB comments or minutes suggesting rates could stay at current levels for an extended period if the baseline outlook holds. The British pound edged slightly lower amid choppy trading and limited UK news flow, while the Japanese yen weakened, with USD/JPY climbing above 157.00 as US yields moved higher.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
