- USDTHB: moving in the range 31.23 – 31.25 this morning, supportive level at 31.10 resistance level at 31.35
- SET Index: 1,466.67 (+0.48%), 18 Feb 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 6,881.31 (+0.10%), 18 Feb 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.892 (-0.85 bps), 18 Feb 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.09 (+4.0 bps), 18 Feb 2026
- FOMC minutes highlight rate divide
- US economic data exceeded market expectations
- Lagarde to leave ECB before end of term
- UK inflation falls to 10-month low
- Dollar firms as US yields rise
FOMC minutes highlight rate divide
The FOMC Minutes showed broad support for keeping rates at 3.50–3.75%, with only a couple favouring a 25bps cut due to concerns over restrictive policy and labour market risks. While several members said further easing would be appropriate if inflation continues to moderate, others preferred to wait for clearer evidence of sustained disinflation. Participants also emphasised a two-sided approach, noting that hikes remain possible should inflation prove more persistent.
US economic data exceeded market expectations
US durable goods orders fell 1.4% M/M in December, a smaller decline than expected, with strength in core orders and shipments supporting expectations for solid Q4 business equipment investment and underpinning forecasts for resilient 2026 capex. Meanwhile, January industrial production rose 0.7%, led by a 0.6% gain in manufacturing, while capacity utilisation edged up to 76.2%.
Lagarde to leave ECB before end of term
The Financial Times reported that Christine Lagarde is expected to leave the European Central Bank before her term ends in October 2027, aiming to step down ahead of France’s presidential election next April, though the ECB said no decision has been made.
UK inflation falls to 10-month low
UK inflation eased to its lowest since March 2025, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut at the Bank of England’s next meeting, as January CPI slowed to 3% y/y from 3.4%, with motor fuels the main drag; monthly prices fell 0.5%, core inflation edged down to 3.1% y/y, and services inflation slipped to 4.4%, slightly above forecasts.
Dollar firms as US yields rise
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.892, -0.85 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 1.92, +2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.09, +4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 31.27, moving in a range of 31.23 – 31.25 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 31.10 – 31.35 today. The US dollar strengthened across the board as higher Treasury yields underpinned demand, with momentum accelerating after the durable goods report showed a smaller-than-expected contraction in the headline figure. Yields were further supported by a rebound in oil prices, after an Axios report tempered optimism over a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran, citing sources who suggested the Trump administration may be closer to a major conflict than previously thought. Markets also digested the latest FOMC Minutes, which largely reiterated January’s policy statement and highlighted a divided outlook on the rate path. Against this backdrop, the euro weakened amid broad dollar strength and lingering uncertainty surrounding Lagarde’s future, The British pound slipped below the 1.3500 mark following softer UK CPI data, and the Japanese yen lost ground as USD/JPY pushed firmly above 154.00 in tandem with rising US yields.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
