- USDTHB: moving in the range 31.08 – 31.15 this morning, supportive level at 30.90 resistance level at 31.20
- SET Index: 1,311.6 (-0.45%), 22 Jan 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 6,913.4 (+0.55%), 22 Jan 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.937 (-1.97 bps), 22 Jan 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.26 (+0.0 bps), 22 Jan 2026
- Core PCE index holds steady, meeting expectations
- US GDP outperforms forecasts with a 4.4% rise, marking economic resilience
- Initial jobless claims rise slightly, but remain below forecast
- Japan inflation cools on subsidy effects ahead of BoJ decision
- Malaysia’s central bank keeps interest rate unchanged at 2.75%
- Dollar slides as geopolitical developments dominate markets
Core PCE index holds steady, meeting expectations
November PCE came in exactly in line with expectations. Headline and core inflation both rose 0.2% m/m, with year-over-year rates at 2.8%. Personal income underperformed at 0.3% versus a 0.4% consensus, while spending met expectations at 0.5%. Real consumption rose 0.3%, and the core PCE deflator increased 0.16%, matching forecasts.
US GDP outperforms forecasts with a 4.4% rise, marking economic resilience
GDP was revised modestly higher to 4.4%, beating expectations and the prior 4.3%, driven by gains in consumer spending, exports, government outlays, and investment. Corporate profits were revised up to 4.7%, above both the prior 4.2% and the 4.3% consensus. On inflation, core PCE was revised up to 2.9% as expected, while headline PCE held at 2.8%.
Initial jobless claims rise slightly, but remain below forecast
Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17—aligned with the NFP survey period—again surprised to the downside at 200k versus 212k expected, leaving the four-week average lower at 201.5k from 205.3k. Continued claims also declined, falling to 1.84 million from 1.88 million, below the 1.9 million consensus.
Japan inflation cools on subsidy effects ahead of BoJ decision
Japanese inflation cooled sharply in December, as expected, led by easing food and utility costs, though underlying price pressures remained above the BoJ’s 2% target. Headline CPI fell to 2.1% from 2.9%, its lowest level since March 2022. National core CPI eased to 2.4% from 3.0%, marking its weakest reading since October 2024, while the BoJ’s preferred measure excluding fresh food and energy slipped to 2.9% from 3.0%, a nine-month low but still above target.
Malaysia’s central bank keeps interest rate unchanged at 2.75%
Malaysia’s central bank kept the overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, citing an economy resilient to tariff shocks. Bank Negara Malaysia said its policy stance remains “appropriate and supportive,” with growth momentum expected to carry into 2026. Inflation remains subdued, with headline inflation forecast to stay moderate and core inflation stable and near its long-term average.
Dollar slides as geopolitical developments dominate markets
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.937, -1.97 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 1.93, -3.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.26, +0.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 31.37, moving in a range of 31.08 – 31.15 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 30.90 – 31.20 today. The dollar weakened Thursday as geopolitical headlines drove markets, with progress on Greenland and renewed Russia–Ukraine talks weighing on the greenback. G10 FX broadly gained, except the Japanese yen, which lagged and pushed USD/JPY to 158.89 ahead of the BoJ, though losses eased after Japan forecast a FY26 primary balance deficit. The British pound was firmer overall but dipped early on UK political headlines before recovering as expectations for a near-term leadership shift faded.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
