- USDTHB: moving in the range 31.43-31.46 this morning, supportive level at 31.30 resistance level at 31.55
- SET Index: 1,260.7 (-1.00%), 16 Dec 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,800.3 (-0.24%), 16 Dec 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.713 (-1.12 bps), 16 Dec 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.15 (-3.0 bps), 16 Dec 2025
- US payrolls rise after October drop, unemployment marches higher
- US retail sales unexpectedly unchanged in October
- Flash PMIs show slowing growth
- UK unemployment rises ahead of BoE meeting
- Dollar ends flat after choppy trading on heavy data day
US payrolls rise after October drop, unemployment marches higher
Both October and November jobs reports were released after the government shutdown, with October missing the unemployment rate and showing a 105k payroll decline largely driven by a 162k drop in federal jobs. November payrolls rose 64k, beating forecasts, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.6%. Wage growth was soft, with earnings up just 0.1% m/m and 3.5% y/y, both below expectations, while private payroll gains remained modest. Overall, the data had little impact on Fed pricing, with markets still assigning a roughly 24% chance of a January rate cut.
US retail sales unexpectedly unchanged in October
October retail sales were flat m/m, missing expectations, largely due to weaker vehicle sales after the EV tax credit expired, which masked otherwise solid underlying demand. Ex-autos sales rose 0.4% and ex-gas/autos 0.5%, while retail control surged 0.8%, pointing to healthy momentum.
Flash PMIs show slowing growth
US flash PMIs signalled slowing growth in December alongside a sharp rise in prices, with manufacturing easing to 51.8 and services falling more than expected to 52.9, pulling the composite down to 53.0. Meanwhile, the eurozone flash composite PMI slipped to 51.9 from 52.8, with services driving growth at 52.6 while manufacturing fell back into contraction at 49.7, ending a nine-month expansion streak. Growth slowed in Germany, France hovered near stagnation, and the rest of the region expanded more slowly. In the UK, activity picked up, with the flash composite PMI rising to a two-month high of 52.1, fueled by the fastest increase in new business since October 2024; manufacturing led the gain at 15-month highs, and services also improved, though overall growth remained modest.
UK unemployment rises ahead of BoE meeting
UK unemployment hit a five-year high at 5.1%, while wage growth eased to 4.6%, signaling a cooling labor market and paving the way for a pre-Christmas BoE rate cut.
Dollar ends flat after choppy trading on heavy data day
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.713, -1.12 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.700, -0.99 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.15, -3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 31.52, moving in a range of 31.43 – 31.46 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 31.30 – 31.55 today. The dollar ended broadly flat amid choppy trade as markets digested NFP and retail sales, with October payrolls falling 105k—largely due to a shutdown-driven drop in federal employment—before a modest November rebound, while the uptick in unemployment to 4.6% was downplayed given higher BLS uncertainty. The euro also finished flat after gains stalled near 1.1800, the British pound outperformed by reclaiming 1.3400 on better-than-feared jobs data and firmer wage growth, and the Japanese yen strengthened gradually, pushing USD/JPY back below 155.00 amid BoJ hike expectations and narrowing US-Japan yield differentials.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
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