- USDTHB: moving in the range 31.89-31.90 this morning, supportive level at 31.80 resistance level at 32.00
- SET Index: 1,273.8 (-0.08%), 4 Dec 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,870.4 (+0.19%), 5 Dec 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.679 (+0.01 bps), 5 Dec 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.14 (+3.0 bps), 5 Dec 2025
- Core PCE holds steady, meets expectations
- Michigan consumer sentiment index sees an uptick, surpassing forecasts
- Euro Zone Q3 growth revised higher, driven by domestic demand
- Japan revises Q3 GDP lower, reinforcing need for stimulus
- Dollar index flats; PCE report unlikely to sway Fed
Core PCE holds steady, meets expectations
Core PCE rose 0.198% in September, in line with forecasts, with the year-over-year gain cooling to 2.8% from August’s 2.9%, slightly below expectations. Headline PCE increased 0.269% (Y/Y 2.8%), while personal income rose 0.4% and adjusted consumption 0.3%, with real consumption unchanged at 0%. Though the data is stale due to the government shutdown, the cooler readings are likely to have minimal near-term impact on Fed expectations, but may influence projections this week.
Michigan consumer sentiment index sees an uptick, surpassing forecasts
The University of Michigan sentiment index rose for the first time in five months, reaching 53.3 in December from 51.0 in November (exp. 52.0), driven mainly by younger consumers. Current conditions fell slightly to 50.7, while expectations jumped to 55.0, led by a 13% rise in expected personal finances and broad improvements across age, income, education, and political affiliation. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.1% from 4.5%, and five-year expectations fell to 3.2% from 3.4%, the lowest since January.
Euro Zone Q3 growth revised higher, driven by domestic demand
The euro-area economy grew faster than first reported in the third quarter, with GDP rising 0.3% from the previous quarter, above Eurostat’s 0.2% estimate. Stronger investment and consumption drove the revision, though net trade weighed on growth.
Japan revises Q3 GDP lower, reinforcing need for stimulus
Japan’s Q3 GDP contracted more than first reported, shrinking at an annualized 2.3% as revised data showed weaker business spending and housing investment. The downturn, deeper than the initial 1.8% estimate, marks the first contraction in six quarters and adds justification for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recently announced stimulus package. Separately, labor ministry data showed real wages fell 0.7% in October, the tenth consecutive monthly decline. Nominal pay rose 2.6%, with base salaries increasing at the same pace, but both remained below inflation. A steadier wage measure excluding bonuses and overtime rose 2.2%, slightly slowing from the previous month.
Dollar index flats; PCE report unlikely to sway Fed
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.679, +0.01 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.673, +0.16 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.14, +3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.00, moving in a range of 31.89 – 31.90 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 31.80 – 32.00 today. The dollar was flat on Friday, as the delayed September PCE report—largely in line with expectations, with slightly softer core Y/Y inflation and monthly readings consistent with H2 2025 levels—likely carries little weight for the Fed’s December policy decision. Meanwhile, University of Michigan Sentiment posted its first increase in five. The index briefly dipped to 98.805 before recovering alongside an extended rise in US yields, amid otherwise light newsflow. The Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar, reflecting exhaustion from ongoing hawkish signals from the BoJ and pressure from rising US yields. Bloomberg reported that the BoJ is likely to hike in December while keeping the door open for further moves, pending data and market developments.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
--------------------------------
