- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.39-32.40 this morning, supportive level at 32.30 resistance level at 32.50
- SET Index: 1,270.0 (-0.79%), 18 Nov 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,617.3 (-0.83%), 18 Nov 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.701 (-4.62 bps), 18 Nov 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.12 (-1.0 bps), 18 Nov 2025
- US data painted a sluggish picture of the labour market
- US factory orders rebound as expected in August
- Ueda signals BOJ remains on rate hike path after PM meet
- Thai commercial banks see Q3 profits and lending decline
- Dollar holds steady ahead of NFP
US data painted a sluggish picture of the labour market
The weekly ADP report showed that private employers cut an average of 2,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 1st, an improvement from the 11,250 weekly cuts reported previously. ADP noted that while new hires are increasing, overall job growth remains sluggish. Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims rose to 232K, exceeding both the forecast and the prior reading of 218K. The increase signals potential softening in the labour market as more individuals file for unemployment benefits.
US factory orders rebound as expected in August
US factory orders increased 1.4% in August, rebounding from an unrevised 1.3% decline in July and meeting economists’ expectations. On a year-on-year basis, orders rose 3.3%. Meanwhile, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft—a proxy for business investment plans—rose 0.4%, slightly below the 0.6% estimate, while shipments of these core capital goods fell 0.4%, versus September’s 0.3% drop.
Ueda signals BOJ remains on rate hike path after PM meet
Governor Kazuo Ueda told Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that the Bank of Japan is in the process of slowly dialing back its easing support for the economy, signaling his unshaken intention to carefully raise rates. The two met at a time when investors are seeking clarity over Takaichi’s stance on monetary policy and await details of an economic package expected to be unveiled this week.
Thai commercial banks see Q3 profits and lending decline
Commercial bank net profits in Q3 2025 fell 6.9% YoY to 66 billion Baht, mainly due to lower net interest income from shrinking loan portfolios, rate cuts, and debt relief measures. Overall loans contracted 1.0% for the fifth straight quarter, led by a 4.0% drop in SME loans and weaker consumer lending. The Bank of Thailand highlighted rising SME credit risks, with the system-wide NPL ratio edging up to 2.94%.
Dollar holds steady ahead of NFP
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.701, -4.62 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.662, -5.67 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.12, -1.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.46, moving in a range of 32.39 – 32.40 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.30 – 32.50 today. The dollar was largely steady, with the index trading in a 99.396–99.662 range. Tuesday’s US labour data signalled continuing softness—initial jobless claims rose to 232k for the week ending October 18th, matching state-level indicators, while weekly ADP figures showed a net loss of 2.5k jobs over the four weeks to November 1st, though slightly improved week-on-week. This ongoing labour-market weakness reinforces expectations for further Fed easing, posing a headwind for the Dollar. Looking ahead, markets await the delayed September payrolls on Thursday, alongside the week’s claims data, which the DoL confirmed will also be released that day. Meanwhile, G10 FX traded mixed, with CAD, AUD, and NZD outperforming, GBP and EUR flat, and JPY and CHF weaker. The Japanese yen remained pressured despite the US equity sell-off, as domestic factors and renewed China–Japan tensions—including Beijing’s travel restrictions—kept USD/JPY supported.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
