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Daily Market Insight: 21 October 2025

21 ต.ค. 2568
  • USDTHB: moving in the range 32.515-32.53 this morning, supportive level at 32.40 resistance level at 32.70
  • SET Index: 1,284.5 (+0.77%), 20 Oct 2025
  • S&P 500 Index: 6,735.1 (+1.06%), 20 Oct 2025
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.701 (+7.35 bps), 20 Oct 2025
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 4.00 (-2.0 bps), 20 Oct 2025

 

  • Trump and Australia’s Albanese sign critical minerals deal to reduce China reliance
  • BOJ board member Takata keeps call for more rate hikes
  • China Q3 GDP tops forecasts but hits year-low pace
  • China home prices slide faster despite easing in major cities
  • China leaves loan prime rate unchanged in October
  • Dollar edges up on light trade, shutdown data void

 

Trump and Australia’s Albanese sign critical minerals deal to reduce China reliance

Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed an $8.5 billion deal to expand US access to Australia’s critical minerals and rare earths. Meeting at the White House on Monday, the leaders also discussed defense and trade, with Albanese calling the pact a major step forward in bilateral economic and security ties.

 

BOJ board member Takata keeps call for more rate hikes

Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata said on Monday the economy is weathering the hit from U.S. tariffs and has likely already met its 2% inflation target, reiterating his call for resuming interest rate hikes.

 

China Q3 GDP tops forecasts but hits year-low pace

China’s Q3 GDP rose slightly more than expected but marked the slowest pace in a year as disinflation and U.S. trade tensions weighed on momentum. GDP expanded 4.8% YoY, topping forecasts of 4.7% but easing from 5.2% in Q2, while QoQ growth came in at 1.1% versus 0.8% expected. Year-to-date growth stood at 5.2%, just below the prior 5.3% but still above Beijing’s 5% target. Exports and manufacturing remained key growth drivers, while consumer spending and private investment continued to soften.

 

China home prices slide faster despite easing in major cities

China’s home prices declined at a faster pace in September despite recent policy easing in major cities aimed at propping up the ailing property sector. New-home prices in 70 cities fell 0.41% from August, while resale values slid 0.64% — the sharpest drop in a year. The deepening property slump has weighed heavily on economic sentiment, with real estate investment plunging 13.9% in the first three quarters, its lowest level since 2014.

 

China leaves loan prime rate unchanged in October

The PBOC kept its loan prime rates unchanged, as expected, with policymakers treading cautiously amid rising US–China trade tensions. The one-year LPR was held at 3.00% and the five-year at 3.50%, both record lows, as Beijing maintains an ultra-loose stance to counter persistent disinflation. Markets expect further stimulus measures in the coming months to bolster growth.

 

Dollar edges up on light trade, shutdown data void

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.701, +7.35 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.698, +7.95 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.00, -2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.76, moving in a range of 32.515 – 32.53 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.40 – 32.70 today. The dollar firmed slightly in thin trade amid the Fed blackout and limited data from the ongoing government shutdown, with WH adviser Hassett hinting at a potential resolution this week. The euro softened marginally but held in tight ranges as ECB’s Nagel signaled a wait-and-see stance. The British pound slipped, with cable testing 1.34 amid a lack of UK catalysts. The Japanese yen was little changed, with USD/JPY steady at 150.00 following confirmation of the LDP–Ishin coalition ahead of Takaichi’s expected leadership vote win.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC