- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.195-32.235 this morning, supportive level at 32.15 resistance level at 32.30
- SET Index: 1,278.7 (-0.7%), 26 Sep 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,643.7 (+0.59%), 26 Sep 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.469 (+5.58 bps), 26 Sep 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.20 (+2.0 bps), 26 Sep 2025
- Core PCE price index steady, meets forecast
- US consumer sentiment dips slightly below forecast
- Trump to meet top congressional leaders as US shutdown nears
- ECB consumer expectations survey shows inflation outlook rise
- Dollar is giving back some of its recent gains
Core PCE price index steady, meets forecast
August's PCE data came in broadly as expected. Core PCE increased 0.2% M/M, in line with forecasts, following a downward revision to July’s figure. For annual basis, the data held steady at 2.9%. Headline PCE rose 0.3% M/M and 2.7% Y/Y, both matching estimates. Meanwhile, personal income and consumption rose by 0.4% (vs. 0.3% expected) and 0.6% (vs. 0.5%), respectively. Real consumption rose 0.3%, while the supercore index climbed 0.33% M/M and 3.4% Y/Y.
US consumer sentiment dips slightly below forecast
The University of Michigan’s final September Sentiment was revised down to 55.1 (vs. 55.4 prior, unch. expected). Both expectations and current conditions were also lowered, to 51.7 (prev. 51.8) and 60.4 (prev. 61.2), respectively. Inflation expectations eased, with the 1-year falling to 4.7% and the 5-year to 3.7%. Respondents remained frustrated by persistent high prices, which hit a one-year high, and expressed concern over both inflation risks and potential labour market weakness.
Trump to meet top congressional leaders as US shutdown nears
President Donald Trump will meet with the top four congressional leaders at the White House on Monday, amid rising fears of an Oct. 1 government shutdown, according to sources. It will mark his first discussion with Democratic leaders ahead of the funding deadline. A planned meeting earlier in the week with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries was canceled by the White House. In a joint statement, Schumer and Jeffries said Democrats remain committed to preventing a shutdown. If the government closes, the September jobs report will be delayed under the Labor Department’s contingency plan.
ECB consumer expectations survey shows inflation outlook rise
The European Central Bank’s August 2025 Consumer Expectations Survey showed that consumers now expect inflation to reach 2.8% over the next year, up from 2.6% in July. Expectations for inflation five years ahead also rose slightly to 2.2%, the highest since August 2022, while the three-year outlook held steady at 2.5%. The survey also found that consumers anticipate a 1.1% rise in nominal income over the next 12 months, up from 0.9% previously, with expected spending growth unchanged at 3.3%.
Dollar is giving back some of its recent gains
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.469, +5.58 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.455, +7.24 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.20, +2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.23, moving in a range of 32.195 – 32.235 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.15 – 32.30 today. The dollar softened on Friday, pausing its recent rally. While Wednesday’s strength puzzled many, Thursday’s gains were data-driven—Q2 GDP beat forecasts, jobless claims fell sharply, and durable goods orders surged. However, some of that strength was retraced post-PCE, as August data largely met expectations. Focus now shifts to Friday’s NFP, where consensus expects a 39k jobs gain. Meanwhile, G10 FX moves continued to follow broader dollar swings rather than currency-specific drivers.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
