- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.65-32.67 this morning supportive level at 32.55 resistance level at 32.75
- SET Index: 1,244.8 (-0.3%), 21 Aug 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,370.2 (-0.4%), 21 Aug 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.361 (+1.03 bps), 21 Aug 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.33 (+4.0 bps), 21 Aug 2025
- Manufacturing-led rebound lifts US PMI in August
- Hawkish Fed commentary overnight
- Euro zone PMI accelerates in August
- Japan core CPI beats forecast in July
- Dollar gains on strong US PMIs and hawkish Fed comments
Manufacturing-led rebound lifts US PMI in August
The composite PMI rose slightly to 55.4 from 55.1, signaling continued economic strength and suggesting a 2.5% annualized growth rate—up from the 1.3% pace in the first half of the year. Manufacturing surprised by returning to expansion at 53.3, beating all forecasts, while Services eased to 55.4 but still topped expectations. The report carried a hawkish tone, highlighting rising selling prices, strong business activity, and increased hiring. Job creation was among the highest in three years, with the largest buildup of backlogged work since May 2022.
Hawkish Fed commentary overnight
Fed officials struck a cautious tone, emphasizing the need to keep policy modestly restrictive as inflation remains elevated. Schmid said inflation is closer to 3% than 2%, with more work needed to hit target. He’s in no rush to cut rates and sees inflation risks outweighing labor concerns, noting key data will arrive before the September 17 meeting. Hammack also stressed the importance of staying focused on high inflation, adding that tariff impacts are just beginning and won’t be fully felt until next year. She sees no case for a cut if the decision were today. Bostic said the economy is in transition, with inflation still above target and the job market steady. He expects one rate cut in 2025 but noted the outlook remains fluid.
Euro zone PMI accelerates in August
The EU composite PMI rose to 51.1 from 50.9 in July, beating expectations. Manufacturing returned to growth for the first time in over three years, with its PMI climbing to 50.5 and output rising at the quickest rate in nearly three and a half years. Services growth slowed slightly, with the PMI dipping to 50.7. Germany, the region’s largest economy, saw its fastest expansion since March, driven by strong manufacturing gains despite muted services activity.
Japan core CPI beats forecast in July
Japan’s consumer inflation remained well above the Bank of Japan’s target in July, reinforcing market expectations for another rate hike this year, despite a slight moderation in price growth. Core CPI (excluding fresh food) rose 3.1% year-over-year, easing from 3.3% in June but slightly topping the 3.0% forecast. The core-core measure, which also excludes energy, held steady at 3.4%, in line with expectations. Notably, rice prices surged 90.7% from a year ago, though the pace slowed from June’s 100.2% increase.
Dollar gains on strong US PMIs and hawkish Fed comments
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.361, +1.03 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.359, +1.60 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.33, +4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.58, moving in a range of 32.65 – 32.67 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.55 – 32.75 today. The dollar strengthened after surprisingly strong US PMI data and hawkish comments from Fed officials. In contrast, the euro weakened, testing the 1.1600 level, unable to hold onto modest support from European PMI data. The British pound also retreated near 1.3400 after earlier gains from stronger UK services and composite PMIs faded. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen faced pressure, slipping back to the 148.00 handle amid a stronger dollar and wider yield differentials.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
