- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.44-32.48 this morning supportive level at 32.35 resistance level at 32.60
- SET Index: 1,266.7 (-0.8%), 14 Aug 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,468.5 (+0.03%), 14 Aug 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.374 (-4.62 bps), 14 Aug 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.29 (+5.0 bps), 14 Aug 2025
- US PPI surges beyond expectations
- Fed officials push back on large rate cuts, emphasize data dependence
- Japan GDP beats forecast despite tariff headwinds
- UK GDP tops forecast as government spending lifts growth
- Dollar surges on hot US PPI, slightly easing rate cut expectations
US PPI surges beyond expectations
The July Producer Price Index (PPI) came in significantly above expectations, with headline prices rising 0.9% month-over-month—well above the 0.2% consensus and the highest forecast of 0.3%. On annual basis, the PPI accelerated to 3.3% from 2.3%, also exceeding the 2.5% estimate and the top-end forecast of 3.0%. Core PPI matched the headline’s strength, rising 0.9% on the month (vs. 0.2% expected and 0.0% prior), bringing the annual rate to 3.7%—well above forecasts. The BLS noted that over three-quarters of the increase in final demand came from services, which rose 1.1%, driven in large part by a 2.0% jump in trade services margins. Goods prices also climbed 0.7%.
Fed officials push back on large rate cuts, emphasize data dependence
Fed officials signaled a cautious stance ahead of the September meeting, downplaying the need for a large rate cut. Musalem said inflation is near 3% and tariff effects should fade within 6–9 months, though risks remain. He’s taking a meeting-by-meeting approach and sees no justification for a 50bps move. Barkin noted improving business sentiment and early signs of stronger July consumer data, while cautioning it’s still early to assess tariff-related supply chain shifts. Daly also dismissed the need for a 50bps cut, warning it could signal undue urgency, and reiterated a gradual path toward policy normalization.
Japan GDP beats forecast despite tariff headwinds
Japan’s economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, with exports holding up well despite U.S. tariff pressures. GDP increased 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, ahead of the 0.1% forecast, while annualized growth reached 1.0%, beating the expected 0.4%. The expansion was driven by a 1.3% rise in business investment, well above the 0.7% consensus, and a modest 0.2% increase in private consumption. Net exports added 0.3 percentage point to overall growth.
UK GDP tops forecast as government spending lifts growth
UK GDP rose 0.3% in Q2, outperforming the 0.1% forecast and easing pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, while making further Bank of England rate cuts less certain. Growth was driven by higher government spending and inventories, offsetting weaker consumer demand and falling business investment.
Dollar surges on hot US PPI, slightly easing rate cut expectations
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.374, -4.62 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.367, -5.33 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.29, +5.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.31, moving in a range of 32.44 – 32.48 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.35 – 32.60 today. The US dollar gained ground, with the index climbing back above 98.00 following hotter-than-expected PPI data that surpassed all forecasts and led to a partial pullback in expectations for a Fed rate cut. While markets still largely anticipate a 25bps cut in September, it is no longer fully priced in. The euro slipped amid the dollar’s rebound, weighed down by mixed EU data and an in-line GDP print. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened, with USD/JPY nearing 148.00, as the hot US PPI widened the yield gap between the US and Japan.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
