- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.465-32.54 this morning supportive level at 32.40 resistance level at 32.60
- SET Index: 1,218.3 (-2.0%), 1 Aug 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,238.0 (-1.61%), 1 Aug 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.505 (+0.19 bps), 1 Aug 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.23 (-14.0 bps), 1 Aug 2025
- Payrolls disappoint; prior months revised downward
- ISM Manufacturing PMI dips below expectations
- Kugler resigns, opening Fed seat for Trump appointment
- Eurozone inflation held steady at 2% in July
- Dollar slips to lowest level in two days amid weak job data
Payrolls disappoint; prior months revised downward
The July non-farm payrolls report came in well below expectations, with just 73,000 jobs added versus a forecast of 110,000. While technically within the expected range, it landed near the bottom, signaling a weaker labor market—especially when combined with sharp downward revisions to previous months. June’s payrolls were revised down to 14,000 from 147,000, and May’s to 19,000 from 144,000, for a combined reduction of 258,000 jobs—the largest two-month revision this cycle. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, in line with expectations but still below the Fed’s 2025 projection of 4.5%, while participation slipped to 62.2%. Wage growth rose 0.3% m/m and 3.9% y/y, slightly above forecasts, and hours worked edged up.
ISM Manufacturing PMI dips below expectations
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0 in July from 49.0, missing expectations of 49.5 and landing below the forecast range—signaling continued contraction in the sector. Employment declined further to 43.4, while new orders ticked up slightly to 47.1. The prices paid index dropped sharply to 64.8, well below both expectations and the previous reading. Supplier deliveries, inventories, and customers’ inventories all fell, though the backlog of orders rose modestly.
Kugler resigns, opening Fed seat for Trump appointment
The Federal Reserve announced Friday that Governor Adriana Kugler will step down on August 8, opening the door for former President Donald Trump to appoint her replacement amid ongoing tensions over Fed leadership. Some observers speculate Trump may use the vacancy to position a potential future Fed chair. While the White House has not yet commented, Trump later expressed that he was pleased to have a seat to fill.
Eurozone inflation held steady at 2% in July
Eurozone inflation stayed at 2% in July, above the expected 1.9%, supporting ECB’s cautious stance on rate cuts. Core inflation rose to 2.3%, while services inflation hit a low not seen since early 2022. Germany saw a sharper slowdown, but France, Italy, and Spain came in slightly stronger.
Dollar slips to lowest level in two days amid weak job data
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.505, +0.19 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.504, +0.36 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.23, -14.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.79, moving in a range of 32.465 – 32.54 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.40 – 32.60 today. The dollar weakened to end the week after a disappointing US jobs report and weak ISM manufacturing data. G10 currencies rallied broadly, benefiting mainly from dollar weakness. EUR/USD rose from 1.1392 to 1.1588 despite firmer-than-expected Eurozone inflation, which had little market impact. The Japanese yen, pressured earlier by tariffs and BoJ policy, rebounded to become the best performing G10 currency thanks to NFP revisions. USD/JPY fell from 150.91 to 147.54 after the jobs report.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
