- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.73-32.74 this morning supportive level at 32.50 resistance level at 32.80
- SET Index: 1,244.1 (+0.8%), 30 July 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,362.9 (-0.13%), 30 July 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.517 (-0.11 bps), 30 July 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.38 (+4.0 bps), 30 July 2025
- Fed holds rates, no signal of September cut
- US GDP surges 3% on improved trade balance
- Trump announces trade deal with South Korea at 15% tariff rate
- US firms add 104K jobs in ADP report, beating forecasts
- Euro Area growth steady despite trade uncertainty
- Dollar strengthens on strong GDP and hawkish Fed
Fed holds rates, no signal of September cut
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25–4.50%, as expected. Governors Waller and Bowman voted for a 25bps cut, in line with prior comments, while Governor Kugler did not vote. The Fed noted elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook, removing June’s language that it had “diminished,” and said growth had moderated in H1, shifting from its earlier view of solid expansion. Key language on the labor market and inflation remained unchanged. With no signals of imminent rate cuts, the Fed reaffirmed its data-dependent approach, emphasizing decisions will hinge on incoming data, the outlook, and risk assessments.
US GDP surges 3% on improved trade balance
US Q2 GDP grew 3.0%, beating expectations and rebounding from Q1’s -0.5%, largely due to a sharp drop in imports that narrowed the trade deficit. However, this headline strength masked softer underlying demand—final sales to private domestic purchasers rose just 1.2%, the weakest since late 2022. Consumer spending rose 1.4%, driven by goods, but business investment declined across structures, housing, and equipment.
Trump announces trade deal with South Korea at 15% tariff rate
President Trump announced a trade deal with South Korea featuring a 15% tariff on its exports to the US. South Korea will invest $350 billion in the US and buy $100 billion in US energy products. The agreement also ensures South Korea will fully open its market to American goods, including cars, trucks, and agricultural products.
US firms add 104K jobs in ADP report, beating forecasts
ADP reported that US private payrolls rose by 104K in July, surpassing expectations of 75K and rebounding from June’s revised decline of 23K. Wage growth for job-stayers held steady at 4.4%, while job-changers saw an increase to 7.0% from 6.8%.
Euro Area growth steady despite trade uncertainty
The euro-area economy narrowly grew 0.1% in Q2, beating forecasts of no growth, thanks to stronger-than-expected performances in France and Spain. However, this modest gain masks contractions in Germany and Italy and slower growth in the Netherlands, highlighting uneven resilience amid ongoing uncertainty.
Dollar strengthens on strong GDP and hawkish Fed
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.517, -0.11 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.517, -0.50 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.38, +4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.43, moving in a range of 32.73 – 32.74 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.50 – 32.80 today. The dollar strengthened, with the index nearing 100.00, boosted by strong GDP data and hawkish Fed Chair Powell comments following a hold in rates. The euro fell toward 1.1400 despite upbeat GDP, pressured by broad dollar strength. The Japanese yen weakened, with USD/JPY holding above 149.00 as yield differentials widened and focus shifted to the upcoming BoJ decision.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
