- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.40-32.425 this morning supportive level at 32.35 resistance level at 32.55
- SET Index: 1,206.6 (+0.7%), 18 July 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,296.8 (-0.01%), 18 July 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.531 (-1.30 bps), 18 July 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.44 (-3.0 bps), 18 July 2025
- Fed Waller says Fed should cut rates in July meeting
- US consumer sentiment improves in July
- PM Ishiba won’t resign after election defeat
- China keeps loan prime rate unchanged in July as expected
- The dollar still ended the week higher
Fed Waller says Fed should cut rates in July meeting
Fed Governor Waller reaffirmed his support for a 25bps rate cut in July, citing rising economic risks. He warned against waiting for further labor market deterioration, highlighting recent data like the JOLTS report and Beige Book as signs of weakening. While he didn’t commit to dissenting if the Fed holds steady, he said there’s no strong reason to delay easing either. On speculation about a potential Fed Chair nomination, Waller said he has not been approached by the Trump team.
US consumer sentiment improves in July
The preliminary University of Michigan data for July surprised to the upside, with sentiment, conditions, and expectations all beating forecasts. The headline index rose to 61.8, while current conditions climbed to 66.5 and expectations hit 58.6. Meanwhile, inflation expectations eased, with the 1-year falling to 4.4% and the 5-year to 3.6%. Still, analysts cautioned that sentiment remains subdued versus pre-election levels and could face further headwinds from new tariffs set for August 1.
PM Ishiba won’t resign after election defeat
According to public broadcaster NHK, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its longtime coalition partner Komeito have lost their majority in the chamber. This marks the first time since 1955 that a leader from the historic Japanese party will govern without holding a majority in at least one house of the legislature. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he would remain in office despite a historic defeat in Sunday’s upper house election.
China keeps loan prime rate unchanged in July as expected
The People’s Bank of China held its benchmark loan prime rates steady on Monday, as widely anticipated, keeping them at record-low levels to support economic growth. The one-year LPR remained at 3.0%, while the five-year rate, which is used to price mortgages, was unchanged at 3.50%, both in line with market expectations.
The dollar still ended the week higher
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.531, -1.30 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.523, -1.83 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.44, -3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.42, moving in a range of 32.40 – 32.425 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.35 – 32.55 today. The dollar remained mostly steady on Friday as markets focused on comments from Fed Governor Waller, who reiterated his support for a 25-basis point rate cut in July, along with US economic data releases. Looking ahead, next week’s US calendar is relatively quiet due to the Fed’s blackout period, aside from ongoing corporate earnings reports. The euro all posted modest gains against the dollar, with little currency-specific news. Focus for the Euro shifts to next week’s ECB meeting, where no rate change is expected. However, reports suggest the ECB may adopt a more negative outlook due to Trump’s latest tariff threats. Meanwhile, The Japanese yen saw slight losses, with USD/JPY trading between 148.19–88 ahead of Sunday’s Upper House elections. Meanwhile, Japanese inflation data came in as expected, offering little support to the yen.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
