- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.53-32.575 this morning supportive level at 32.40 resistance level at 32.65
- SET Index: 1,161.0 (+1.55%), 15 July 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,243.8 (-0.4%), 15 July 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.533 (-2.32 bps), 15 July 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.50 (+7.0 bps), 15 July 2025
- Trump imposes 19% tariff on Indonesian imports in new deal
- US June CPI report sends mixed signals
- China’s economy expands 5.2% as exports boost growth despite weak consumer demand
- China home prices fall sharply amid growing calls for support
- The US dollar rose after markets digested the latest inflation report
Trump imposes 19% tariff on Indonesian imports in new deal
US President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with Indonesia under which Indonesian goods will be subject to a 19% tariff, while US exports to Indonesia will remain untaxed. As part of the deal, Indonesia committed to purchasing $15 billion in U.S. energy, $4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft. Separately, Trump indicated he may soon impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals—possibly by the end of the month—with rates starting low and rising steeply after giving companies a year to adjust. He also signaled that tariffs on semiconductors could follow shortly.
US June CPI report sends mixed signals
Headline inflation rose 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations but up from May’s 0.1%, pushing the annual rate to 2.7% (above the 2.6% forecast). Core CPI rose 0.2% M/M and 2.9% Y/Y—slightly above May’s 2.8% but below the 3.0% consensus. Shelter was the main driver, with other increases in furnishings, medical care, and personal items. Used and new vehicle prices, along with airfare, declined. Notably, core goods CPI jumped 0.7%, its fastest rise in nearly two years, signaling early tariff effects.
China’s economy expands 5.2% as exports boost growth despite weak consumer demand
China’s economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, with GDP rising 5.2% year-over-year, slightly above the 5.1% forecast, following a 5.4% gain in the first quarter. Strong exports outside the U.S. helped offset slowing consumer demand. For the first half of 2025, GDP growth reached 5.3%, meeting forecasts and surpassing the government’s 5% annual target.
China home prices fall sharply amid growing calls for support
China’s home prices declined more sharply in June, fueling expectations of further policy support for the struggling property sector. Prices for new homes across 70 cities fell by 0.27% from May—the steepest drop in eight months. Meanwhile, second-hand home prices slipped 0.61%, marking the largest decrease since September. Separately, industrial output rose 6.8% in June year-over-year, exceeding the 5.6% growth economists had predicted. However, retail sales increased by 4.8% last month, falling short of expectations. Fixed-asset investment grew 2.8% in the first half of the year, while property investment contracted by 11.2% over the same period.
The US dollar rose after markets digested the latest inflation report
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.533, -2.32 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.527, -2.44 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.50, +7.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.47, moving in a range of 32.53 – 32.575 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.40 – 32.65 today. The US dollar strengthened following the latest inflation report, which delivered mixed signals—softer-than-expected core readings but still an uptick from the prior month, including a sharp 0.7% rise in core goods—leading to a hawkish market reaction. The euro weakened and tested the 1.1600 level amid broad dollar gains and political uncertainty in France surrounding Prime Minister Bayrou’s budget efforts. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continued to depreciate, with the dollar briefly reclaiming the 149.00 level following the U.S. inflation-driven surge.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
